(State at Virginia; Thursday January 13th; 7 p.m.; ACCNX)
UVA certainly has had issues with Covid the last two seasons. Last season, the team stopped play after a loss to Florida State on December 13, 2020. To that point Virginia had played only 5 of their scheduled 9 games. This season Virginia after losing to State on December 19th had a game at Texas Southern canceled and had postponed games at Notre Dame, with Miami, and at Virginia Tech before resuming play at Georgia Tech last Sunday, a 67-31 loss.
The game at Texas Southern was canceled due to Texas Tech adhering to the outlined Covid Protocols. The game at Notre Dame, the game with Miami and the game at Virginia Tech were postponed due to Virginia adhering to outlined Covid Protocols. When it comes to Covid, UVA for some reason is not having much luck avoiding the virus. We hope that going forward not only does UVA not have to deal with the virus anymore but that all teams do not have to deal with the virus anymore.
As I have noted before, Virginia is the only original member of the ACC to whom State has a losing record. Right now State is 39-40 against UVA; however, State is 8-2 over the last 10 games. State's last loss to Virginia was on January 4, 2018 in Raleigh, a 73-63 unexpected loss. State started conference play 0-3 in 2018 only to right itself finishing 11-5, going to the sweet 16 and then losing to powerhouse Mississippi State 71-57.
When State played Virginia on December 19th, Virginia started Carole Miller, Eleah Parker, Camryn Taylor, Taylor Valladay and Amandine Toi. Against GaTech on Sunday, Virginia started Amandine Toi, Carole Miller, Meg Jefferson, London Clarkson and Kaydan Lawson. It is unclear who will be able to play for Virginia when they again meet State. In the Georgia Tech game Miller and Toi, two who started against State in the December 19th game, scored 8; however, neither shot well as one might expect due to the long Covid layoff. Toi shot 2-10 from the floor while Miller shot 2-9.
Six-two junior Camryn Taylor for the season leads Virginia in scoring at 13.46 ppg while five-ten grad student Amandine Toi is second in scoring at 12.83 ppg. Taylor also leads the team in rebounding with 6.27 rpg. Toi leads UVA in field goal percentage at 426 while six-foot junior Carol Miller has the best arc shooting percentage at 429. Virginia shoots 380 from the floor 280 from the arc.
Virginia has a 3-9 overall record, has a 0-2 conference record, has a Live RPI of 150, has a NET of 217, has and ELO of 141, has a SOS of 25 and has a quad one record of 0-3. Virginia as one might expect does not have a significant win.
State has an overall record of 14-2, has a conference record of 5-0, has a NET of 2, has an ELO of 4, has an SOS of 4 and has a quad one record of 4-2. States best wins are those at Indiana and surprisingly Miami. State's most satisfying win was the 72-45 beat down of UNC.
Nolan likes State 83-52. Lobo's Look likes State 81.6 to 47.7 with the game played at Virginia. Lobo also gives State a 99.3% win probability.
R1, whoever they are, gives State a 99% win probability and by a score of 83-52. ELO gives State an 87% win probability and by a score of 78-56.
If the game is played look for the bench to get lots of minutes in a
n easy win. Go Pack!
after further consideration, no win is easy. :-)