WBB: State vs. UNC. Can State Return the Favor?


Elissa Controls Tip Against UNC

Photo sbas.

In the 2018-19 season State hosted UNC with a 21-0 record only to have UNC end that with a 64-51 win. In the 2019-20 season State ventured into Chapel Hill this time with a 14-0 record only to have UNC end that 66-60.

This season UNC on Thursday January 6th ventures into Raleigh with a 13-0 record. Time for payback!

With regard to the history between the two, State now holds a 60-53 record, but UNC was close to passing State until State won 7 of the last 10 match-ups including four in a row which included a 3-0 record in 2018.

In UNC's last game, a 62-81 win over Clemson in Chapel Hill, UNC started five-eight sophomore Deja Kelly, five-eleven sophomore Kennedy Todd-Williams, six-one sophomore Alyssa Ustby, six-two sophomore Anya Poole and five-nine grad student Carlie Littlefield. Five-nine redshirt junior Eva Hodgson got 21 minutes off the bench.

In the Clemson game Deja Kelly led UNC in scoring with 31 hitting 10-22 from the floor; 5-11 from the arc. Anya Poole had 13 rebounds for UNC in that game. For the season UNC is shooting 452 from the floor; 349 from the arc. UNC's assist to turnover ratio is 1.2. Kelly shoots a team best 418 from the arc while for the starters, Ustby shoots 507 from the floor.

From Warrennolan UNC has a 13-0 overall record, has a 3-0 conference record, has a Live RPI of 21, has a NET of 3, has an ELO of 12, has an SOS of 154 and has a quad one record of 1-0. UNC's best win was over and at RPI 40 Boston College 76-73.

From Warrennolan State has an overall record of 12-2, has a conference record of 3-0, has a Live RPI of 2, has a NET of 2, has an ELO of 5, has a SOS of 4 and has a quad one record of 3-2. State's best win was over and at RPI 10 Indiana 66-58.

Nolan picks State to lose to UNC 73-72 as does R1. ELO gives State a 65% win probability and by the score of 76-68. Lobo's Look at herhoopstats gives State an 81.9% chance of a win with a score of State 77.4, UNC 65.6. From herhoopstats UNC's value rating is 31.7 and their rank is 11/356. State's value rating is 42.5 and their rank is 2/356.

I like Lobo's Look as to probability of a win but I think the score differential could be larger absent State due to Covid not having available more than one of their normal starters and best subs. I am surprised Nolan/R1 picked UNC to win especially since the game is in Raleigh. Does Nolan know something that we do not?

In the end State wins.