I always enjoy this time of year as bowl projections begin to take shape. It’s not quite as fun this year with State looking at an 8-4 or 7-5 finish, but I wanted to take stab at where I think the Pack ends up bowling.

After the ACC Champ goes to the Orange, I believe the Cheez-It does have next pick. This is all assuming Clemson doesn’t make the CFP, which I doubt. The other bowls don’t really have a selection process. They come together and place teams based on geography and how many times they’ve been to that bowl recently. Notre Dame is included in the ACC’s selection process, so they will take one of the conference’s bowls, which sucks.

Of note, conference record is used to determine whether a team, can "jump" another team or not. For example, if State finishes 3-5 in conference, then they be considered for a bowl with a 4-4 team, but not a 5-3 one. That’s why the game Friday is very important for bowling. If the Pack wants a semi-decent bowl game, they need to finish 4-4.

Also, a Tier 1 bowls for the ACC are: Cheez It, Gator, Mayo, Sun, Holiday, Pinstripe. These all have games against P5 teams, which I think state would prefer. The others listed are Tier 2 and are likely against a G5 team.

Ok here we go…

ACC standings of bowl eligible teams:

Clemson: 8-0

Unc: 6-1

FSU: 5-3

Pitt: 4-3

Louisville: 4-4

Duke: 4-3

GT: 4-4

NC State: 3-4

Wake Forest: 3-4

Syracuse: 3-4

Miami: 3-4

Now GT is at 5-6 overall and facing Georgia, so we can safely assume they will not become bowl eligible. Pitt faces off against 5-6 Miami, and I’ll take Pitt to win that game, eliminating Miami. I’ll give Cuse the win over BC, and Duke the win over Wake. The below scenario assumes State loses to unc Friday. This also assumes the Holiday takes Notre Dame.

Clemson: 8-0 Orange

unc: 7-1: Cheez-It

FSU: 5-3 Gator

Pitt: 5-3 Sun

Duke: 5-3 Duke’s Mayo

LVille: 4-4 Pinstripe

Cuse: 4-4 Gasparilla

NC State: 3-5 Military

Wake: 3-5 Birmingham

With ND taking one of the ACC’s marquee slots, it pushes everybody down a notch. Now if ND can beat USC and finish strong, they might be included in the NY6, opening up the Holiday or some other bowl to the conference. State won’t have the record to jump many teams if it finishes at 3-5, and they will have to settle for some tier 2 bowl against a G5 team. Now if they beat unc… (assuming ND gets Holiday again)

Clemson: 8-0 Orange

Unc: 6-2 Gator

FSU: 5-3 Cheez It

Pitt: 5-3 Sun

Duke: 5-3 Military

State: 4-4 Duke’s Mayo

LVille: 4-4 Pinstripe

Cuse: 4-4 Gasparilla

Wake: 3-5 Birmingham

Now I could live with the Duke’s Mayo bowl, drivable and against a SEC team. There’s so much more than I can explain but I’m getting tired of typing.

Point being, if State wants a shot at a P5 opponent in a bowl, it probably needs to win Friday. Always a chance we get one if we lose, but I don’t want to watch us play some G5 team and possibly lose ☹.