WBB: State at Iowa

Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports


After watching Iowa currently ranked 10th by the AP play UConn, one would know that they can shoot the three ball. From watching the UConn/Iowa game, one would think that State currently ranked 12th by the AP has the size to more than match up with Iowa and should have a quickness and speed advantage (I thought the same when we played them in Greensboro in 2019-oh was I wrong-more on that later), but Iowa does have Caitlin Clark who had 25 against UConn. Playing Iowa with Caitlin is always going to be scary.

State plays at Iowa on Thursday, December 1st at 8:30 p.m. Eastern Time. The game is being televised on ESPN2. State has one win and two losses with regard to Iowa. State last played Iowa in the 2019 Sweet Sixteen and in Greensboro, N.C. State lost 79-61. Megan Gustafson had 27 for Iowa shooting 10-14 from the floor. By the way, I think that up until the UConn game, that was State's last double digit loss.

Six-foot junior Caitlin Clark leads Iowa in scoring at 26.7 ppg. Caitlin shoots 455 from the floor; 310 from the arc. Six-three fifth year player Monika Czinano is second on the team scoring wise at 17.3 ppg; 653 from the floor. Monika has not attempted a three pointer. Monika is also the leading rebounder for Iowa at 7 rpg with Caitlin second at 6.9 rpg. Six foot redshirt senior Kate Martin is Iowa's best arc shooter shooting 9 for 18 for the season. She hit all 6 of her arc shots against UConn. Iowa's volume arc shooter is six-one senior McKenna Warnock who has shot 36 for the season hitting 14 of those. As a team, Iowa shoots 337 from the arc; 483 from the floor. Iowa averages 40.9 rpg and 18.4 apg.

From warrennolan, State is 6-1 overall, has a NET of 2, an RPI of 5, an ELO of 9 and a SOS of 15. Dramatic change in these figures over the last week or so. State has no quad one wins. State's best win was over Charlotte with a current RPI of 79.

Also from Nolan, Iowa is 5-2, has a NET of 14, an RPI of 16, an ELO of 10 and an SOS of 19. Iowa has one quad 1 win. Iowa's best win was over Drake with a current RPI of 80.

Nolan predicts Iowa to win 79-75 with a 64% win probability. Lobo from HerHoopStats surprisingly picks State to win 76.5 to 67.4 with a 66.4% win probability. In the "compare teams category" at HerHoopStats, State has a win probability of 66.4% when the game is at Iowa, a 77% win probability when the game is at a neutral site and an 85.1% win probability if played in Raleigh.

Taking a look at HerHoopStats ratings, Iowa has a value of 33.2 and State has a value of 46.5. Iowa has a rank of 13/361 while State has a rank of 4/361. One has to wonder about our State-why-we should not have got crushed at UConn. Lobo and HerHoopStats think highly of this State team-almost to the level of last year's team. Still, it will be a daunting task to win at Iowa.