State vs Miami; 6 PM; ACC Network
Last season State played Miami for the ACC Tournament Championship. State won 60-47 giving State a three-peat for the Tournament. State also beat Miami on its home court last season 76-64. The overall record between State and Miami is 12 wins for State, 11 wins for Miami. State's current win streak is five while Miami earned a 7-game win streak from 2011 to 2014. Miami has always been a thorn in the side of State since 2011. Not until Elissa Cunane joined the Pack did the Pack start beating Miami consistently as with Elissa, State had the five-game winning streak noted above.
What is interesting about Miami? The Cavinder twins and their NIL earnings would be that. The twins who transferred in April of 2022 from Fresno State to Miami had estimated earnings at that time of close to one million dollars. This from Front Office Sports:
Haley and Hanna Cavinder, two of the most marketable athletes in college sports, are transferring from Fresno State to the University of Miami.
They boast an aggregate of about 5 million followers across social media channels, Front Office Sports previously calculated. Their estimated earnings are close to $1 million.
Five-six senior Haley leads Miami in scoring in conference play at 15.4 ppg. Six-feet grad student Destiny Harden is second in scoring in conference play at 12.4 ppg. Five-ten sophomore Jasmyne Roberts is third in scoring in conference games at 9.9 ppg. Along with Haley, Jasmyne and Destiny, five-nine sophomore Ja'Leah Williams and six-four senior Lola Pendande made up Miami's starting five in their last game which was a win over Wake. Hanna Cavinder played 16 minutes in Miami's game against Wake. Note that Hardin scored the last 15 points for Miami in their win over Louisville in the 2022 ACC Tournament. Hardin's last second arc shot against Louisville sent Miami to the finals where they lost to State as noted above.
From warrennolan, Miami, who is tied for third in the conference, has a 12-6 overall record, a 5-2 conference record, a live RPI of 64, a NET of 44, an ELO of 41 and a SOS of 42. Miami has a quad one NET record of 2-4 and a quad one RPI record of 2-3. Miami has two wins of significance. Miami beat at home NET 20 UNC following that up with a home win over NET 22 VaTech.
Also from Nolan, State which is in a three-way tie for ninth in the conference, has an overall record of 13-5, a conference record of 3-4, a Live RPI of 13, a NET of 13, an ELO of 27 and a SOS of 5. State's quad one NET record is 3-4 while State's quad one RPI record is 4-4. After winning 7 straight after the UConn loss, State has lost 4 out or their last 6 games.
With regard to predictions, Nolan likes State 73-65 with a 76% chance of a win while Lobo of Her Hoop Stats likes State if the game is played at State 73.9 to 60.3 over Miami with a 86.9% win probability. Lobo also likes State if the game is played at a neutral site (81%-win probability) or at Miami (73.3%-win probability). Lobo's Look shows State scoring 75.3 ppg while Miami scores 74.4 ppg. Lobo's look shows State shooting 44.9% from the floor; 70% from the line; and 35% from the arc. Lobo's Look shows Miami shooting 44% from the floor, 71.7% from the line; and 31.6% from the arc.
I think State fans will see this game as a must win game for the Pack if the team is to finish in the top four of the conference standings. Considering that Lobo has picked State to win every game to date absent that at UConn one might conclude that State is underachieving. The ankle injuries of Diamond and Jada certainly have not helped; however, the starting five playing "without real effort" in some games has been disappointing. Losing to UNC there, not that we ever want to lose to UNC, is not that bad as State is 1-3 in Chapel Hill over the last four years; however, the no show at FSU was one of those "without real effort" games.
I think the Pack wins. Go Pack!