State returns to Kay Yow Court Sunday, January 8th at 3:00 p.m.
The game is to be televised on the Regional Sports Network; Bally Sports.
State's current overall Record is 12-3. If before the season started one imagined State at this point having a 12-3 overall record, one would not be alarmed because State only returned one starter, lost a six-five All-American center, and was scheduled to play at UConn, Iowa and Georgia. One could see State losing those three games. However, a State fan probably could not imagine State while winning the games at Iowa and Georgia and playing four of their first five conference games at home, losing at home to Duke and Boston College. I could imagine us struggling at Syracuse as that is a tough place to play.
What is shocking to State fans is after going into Christmas break with one loss, that to UConn at UConn, we have lost two straight home games and have played very poorly in the team's last three games. Because I am doing this by memory, I think that warrennolan before we played Duke, predicted us losing maybe one more game, that to Notre Dame, or maybe at UNC. After the loss to B.C., Nolan predicts State to end with an overall record of 21-8, a conference record of 11-7 and a quad record of 6-7. That is quite a change from how the team was perceived coming out of Christmas break and before the Duke game.
Looking at State right now at Nolan, State has an overall record of 12-3, a conference record of 2-2, a NET of 13, a live RPI of 10, an ELO of 12 and as SOS of 4. State's quad 1 record is not bad at 3-2 but that quad 2 record of 3-1 is not stellar.
Looking at Virginia also at Nolan, Virginia has an overall record of 13-2, a conference record of 2-2, a Live RPI of 23, a NET of 29, an ELO of 56 and a quad one record of 1-2. Of interest is that Virginia has no quad 2, 3 or 4 losses.
Virginia's best win was at NET 59 Penn State. State's best win was at NET 17 Iowa. State does have two more solid NET wins; that over NET 36 South Florida and that at NET 48 Georgia. Since quad 1 home wins are those over teams with an RPI rank of 1-30, State could get another quad 1 win Sunday. (One thinks that for quad 1 wins NET should replace RPI as NET, NCAA wise, is more important.)
Despite what Nolan now predicts for State's final results, Nolan still likes State over Virginia 75-60 with an 89% win probability.
Virginia is the one team in the "old 7 or 8 team" ACC conference in which State does not have a winning record. State is tied with Virginia with 40 wins each. State's longest winning streak was 12; Virginia's 15. State has the last win, a 66-43 road win in 2022. Virginia won those 15 straight from 1990 to 1997 which included one three overtime game in January of 1991. I think that 91 game, in Raleigh, sold out the old twelve thousand seats Reynolds Coliseum and featured Andrea Stinson and Dawn Staley.
Virginia is averaging 75.5 ppg while giving up 55.5 ppg. Virginia shoots 441 from the floor; 284 from the arc (woe is us as every poor arc shooting team has been lighting us up lately). Virginia averages 45.7 rpg, 15.8 tpg and 16.5 apg. State on the other hand is averaging 76.6 ppg, while giving up 59.5 ppg. State shoots 458 from the floor; 368 from the arc. State averages 43.1 rpg, 14 apg and 13.9 tpg.
In the loss at VaTech, Virginia started: six-two senior and transfer from Marquette Camryn Taylor;
five-eleven junior, 2020 McDonald's All-American and transfer from UConn Mir McLean;
six-two graduate student, number 6 in her class and Notre Dame transfer Sam Brunelle;
five-seven senior and transfer from Marquette Taylor Vallady;
and five-eight junior five-star transfer from Minnesota Alexia Smith.
Taylor scored 18 while McLean and Brunelle scored 11. Taylor shot 8-13 from the floor, while Brunelle shot 5-8 and McLean shot 5-6. Virginia shot 4-17 from the arc. Brunelle as would be expected is Virginia's volume arc shooter and she shoots 373 from the arc.
With the game played at State, herhoopstats likes State 77.5 to 58.7 with a 93% win probability. Even with the game at Virginia, Stats still likes State 73.8 to 61.5 with an 84.5% win probability. Fans might ask if Stats has watched us play lately. Herhoopstats ratings show Virginia with an 18.1 value and a rank of 55/361 while they show State with a 39.4 rating and a rank of 6/361.
If State plays as poorly as they have in the last three games one might think that there is more than a funk due to lineup changes resulting from ankle injuries with this team. Even if State plays well this game is going to be a tough win as Virginia is like Duke-lots of portal transfers with talent now on the roster.