WBB: Pack Welcomes Vanderbilt

First I take a look at espnw's Women's NCAA Power Rankings from November 27th and by Michael Voepel:

NC State needed just three weeks to go from unranked to the top five of ESPN's women's college basketball Power Rankings.

The Wolfpack were picked to finish eighth in the ACC preseason poll, which now seems preposterous. But they finished 20-12 overall and 9-9 in the ACC last season, losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament. Then because of graduation and transfers, NC State lost four players who started at least 20 games. One of them was guard Diamond Johnson, who was injured for the latter part of the season and played just 22 of NC State's games.

4. NC State Wolfpack (7-0)
Previous ranking:
This week: vs. Vanderbilt (Wednesday), vs. Illinois State (Sunday)

In the Paradise Jam victory Saturday over Colorado, the Wolfpack shut down the Buffs' inside game, holding starting post players Quay Miller and Aaronette Vonleh to a combined 4-of-20 shooting for 10 points. NC State center River Baldwin had her best game this season with 24 points on 8-of-11 shooting from the field and 8-of-8 from the line, with eight rebounds.

N. C. State in the "ACC/SEC Challenge" faces off with Vanderbilt on Wednesday November 29th at 7:15 p.m. The game will be telecast on the ACC Network.

State's record with respect to Vanderbilt is 6 wins and 2 losses. State last met Vanderbilt on November 24th, 2022, an 82-73 Cancun Challenge win for the Pack. Jakia Brown-Turner, Diamond Johnson, Jada Boyd and Camille Hobby let State in scoring with 18, 16, 12 and 10 respectively.

From State's live RPI is 5; their overall record is 7-0; their NET is 17; their ELO is 5; and their SOS is 29. State has two NET quad 1 wins and two RPI quad 1 wins. State has two significant wins that being the home win over NET 2 UConn and the neutral court win over NET 23 Colorado. Without Azzi Fudd, who played against State, UConn is not the team it was and in time the significance of that win RPI wise will diminish but not by much.

Also, from Vanderbilt has a Live RPI of 56; a 7-0 overall record; a NET of 100; an ELO of 36 and an SOS of 203. Vanderbilt has one NET quad 1 win and no RPI quad 1 wins. Vanderbilt's significant win is that over NET 13 Iowa State in the South Point Thanksgiving Shootout in Las Vegas; a 68-53 win.

In Vanderbilt's win over Iowa State, the Commodores started five-eight junior Iyana Moore, five-nine grad student Jordyn Cambridge, six-four sophomore Justine Pissott, six-two junior Sacha Washington and five-ten grad student Jordyn Oliver. Six-two freshman Aga Makurat played 23 minutes off the bench. For the season, Sacha leads the team in scoring at 14.9 ppg with Jordyn C. scoring 14.7 ppg. Jordyn C. leads the team in rebounding at 8.0 rpg while Sacha is second in rebounds at 7.9 rpg. Sacha shoots 565 from the floor while Aga hit 12-26 arc shots (462). Iyana has shot the most arc shots hitting 10-35 (286). Vanderbilt shoots as a team 435 from the floor; 342 from the arc.

Nolan likes State 75-57 with a win probability of 92%. Her Hoop Stats, Lobo's Look, likes State whether the game is being played in Raleigh, at a neutral site or at Vanderbilt. Since the game is being played at State, State by Lobo's Look, has a 96.2% probability of a win with a score of 81.3 to 57.5. With regard to Her Hoop Stats Ratings, State has a value of 37.7 and a rank of 10/360 while Vanderbilt has a value of 12.6 and a rank of 83/360. State's offensive rating at the site is 110.8 (18/360) while Vanderbilt's is 100 (72/360). State's defensive rating is 73.1 (7/360) while Vanderbilt's is 87.5 (111/360). We saw, for example, in the Paradise Jam that State is a really good defensive team.

I note that Nolan picks the game to be closer than Her Hoops Stats but not by much. I would predict that State with a welcome home vocal crowd will play at a high level and the score will be close to both the Her Hoop Stat's prediction and the Nolan prediction. Vanderbilt has Power 5 conference size and it will be interesting to see how River Baldwin after her outstanding game against Colorado matches up with Vanderbilt's six-four Justine Pissott.

Of interest is that Lobo likes Notre Dame over Tennessee at Tennessee (81%-win probability) and LSU over VaTech at LSU (66.5%-win probability).

Go Pack!