We Need a Big Game from Diamond Thursday Night!
(UNC at State; Thursday, February 16th, 8 p.m.; ACCN)
Neither State nor UNC are in ESPN women's basketball power rankings by M. A. Voepel published 9:15 a.m., February 13th. Guess which team is up to number 6? The Iowa Hawkeyes at 20-5 are number 6, down from number 5 after a loss to number 2 Indiana. Remember when we beat Iowa 94-81 at Iowa on December 1st, 2022? Maybe the team should dwell on this a bit.
Historically, State has 62 wins to UNC's 54. State's longest winning streak was 19 games between 1976 and 1982. UNC's longest winning streak was 8 games between 2012 and 2015. State has won 6 out of the last 10 with UNC winning the last game, January 15th, Chapel Hill, 56-47.
From warrennolan, State's overall record is 17-8; their conference record is 7-7; their NET is 17; their Live RPI is 22; their non-conference RPI is 4; their ELO is 34; and their SOS is 5. State's quad 1 NET record is 5-7 and their quad 1 RPI record is 7-6. State's best wins are over NET 8 Iowa at Iowa and over NET 9 Notre Dame in Raleigh. State has split their last ten games.
Also, from warrennolan, UNC's overall record is 18-7; their conference record is 9-5; their NET is 23; their Live RPI is 24; their non-conference RPI is 28; their ELO is 25; and their SOS is 27. UNC's NET quad 1 record is 7-7 and their RPI quad 1 record is 6-7. UNC's best wins are over NET 7 Duke and over NET 9 Notre Dame. Both of these wins were home wins. After winning 8 in a row, UNC has lost 2 out of their last 3 losing at Louisville and at Syracuse and winning at home over Boston College.
UNC has played their recent games without regular starters Eva Hodgson and Alyssa Ustby. Ustby has been out of the lineup the last three games while Hodgson has been out of the lineup the last six games. From the dailytarheel.com, according to UNC Coach Banghart there is not yet an established timetable for the return of Ustby.
Not to worry with regard to Tarheel fans, redshirt freshman five-eight Kayla McPherson, a former McDonald's All-American, started for UNC in the home game against Boston College, and led the team in scoring with 22 shooting 9-17 from the floor; 4-7 from the arc. I watched some of Sunday's B.C. game and she shot much like any other guard has shot against us lately, that is hardly missed.
The rest of UNC's starting lineup against B.C. were six-foot junior Kennedy Todd-Williams (16 points; 6-15 from the floor; 2-7 from the arc); five-eight junior Deja Kelly (12 points; 5-13 from the floor; 1-3 from the arc); six-four redshirt freshman Teonni Key (6 points; 2-4 from the floor; 1-3 from the arc); and six-four junior Alexandr Zelaya (3 points; 1-4 from the floor; 1-3 from the arc). Five-nine freshman Paulina Paris (9 points; 3-8 from the floor; 3-6 from the arc), six-three sophomore Destiny Adams (4 points; 1-4 from the floor; 0-1 from the arc), and six-three senior Malu Tshitenge ( 1 point on 1-2 from the line) came off the bench in the B.C. game.
In the January 15th game at Chapel Hill, UNC did not shoot particularly well. UNC shot 29.7% from the floor and 32.1% from the arc. While Todd-Williams led UNC in scoring with 15, as the team, she did not shoot well from the floor but went 5-5 from the free throw line. Paulina Paris and Destiny Adams off the bench hurt State with 8 points each. Paris shot 2 of 4 from the arc while Adams shot 2-3 from the arc.
Jakia Brown-Turner lead State in scoring with 14 shooting 4-9 from the floor. Camille Hobby had 13 shooting 6-15 from the floor. Unfortunately, Diamond Johnson shot 3-13 from the floor; 2-9 from the arc. State shot 29% from the floor; 21.7% from the arc.
Nolan picks State to beat UNC 68-64 with a 64% win-probability. Her Hoop Stats picks State to win 69.8 to 62 with a 75%-win probability and with the game at State.
Taking into consideration how hot VaTech is right now beating us in the Play4Kay game 73-61 and crushing FSU 84-70 (take my word, the final score was not indicative of the beating Tech put on FSU), State has played pretty well at home if one looks also at the 69-65 win over Notre Dame. State really needs this one; it's a home game; it's a rivalry game; so, I like us for the win! GoPack!