WBB: Louisville, The Second of Three


In the second of three consecutive very important home games for N. C. State's Women's Basketball, State takes on Louisville in the 19th Annual Play4Kay game on Monday, February 5th, 7:00 p.m. The game will be telecast on ESPN2.

In the first of the three games referenced, State defeated UNC 63-59. The final game of the three will be against VaTech on Thursday, March 8th.

State's record against Louisville is 7 and 8. State won the last matchup, a game played in Louisville, 63-51. State has won four in a row after losing six in a row.

State's record in the Play4Kay game is 8-10 having lost to VaTech in last season's Play4Kay game 73-61. State is 2 and 3 over the last five Play4Kay games losing the 2019 game to Notre Dame 95-72 (yikes). Basically, State has not done well in the Play4Kay games.

In Louisville's 81-68 home win over Syracuse, Louisville started six-two sophomore Nyla Harris, six-three senior Olivia Cochran, five-nine grad student Sydney Taylor, six-one grad student Kiki Jefferson and five-nine grad student Nina Rickards. Five-six junior Jayda Cury played 13 minutes off the bench while six-foot senior Merissah Russell played 14 and six-one senior Eylia Love played 17. Kiki Jefferson led the team in scoring with 21 shooting 6-12 from the floor; 9-11 from the free throw line. Nyla Harris was second in scoring in that game with 18 shooting 5-7 from the floor; 8-10 from the foul line. In the Syracuse game Louisville shot 3-13 from the arc. Louisville shoots 326 from the arc, 469 from the floor. Cochran is Louisville's leading rebounder at 6 per game while Jefferson is the team's leading scorer at 13.3 per game.

From warrennolan:

Louisville has a Live RPI of 16; has an overall record of 19-3; has a conference record of 8-1; has a NET of 21; has an ELO of 10; has a SOS of 50; has a quad 1 NET of 4-3; and has a quad 1 RPI of 5-2. Louisville's best win NET wise was a home win over NET 23 Duke 61-44.

State has a Live RPI of 5, an overall record of 19-2, a conference record of 7-2, a NET of 10, an ELO of 4, a SOS of 12, a quad 1 NET record of 5-2 and a quad 1 RPI record of 4-2. State's best wins are that over UConn and especially that over UNC.

RP found at Nolan predicts State to win 71-63 with a win-probability of 76%.

Lobo of herhoopstats predicts State to win if the game is in Raleigh, which it is, by the score of 71.4 to 65.5 with a 69.1% win-probability.

Her Hoop Stats ratings for State are value 33.5 and rank 14/360. For Louisville they are value 30.5 and rank 18/360. For the offensive ratings Louisville's are better: value 110.3 to State's 110.1 and rank 19/360 to State's 20/360. However, for defensive ratings State's are better at value 76.6 to 79.8 for Louisville and at rank 6/360 to 21/360 for Louisville.

While I like State to win, I am wary of any Play4Kay game. I do realize that lately the teams we play in this game are very good teams-mostly I would guess due to the game being on ESPN. Would be nice if Aziaha James has a "having herself a day" game, but Zoe can pick it up if she doesn't. Wondering how River Baldwin is going to be as I am pretty sure she stressed her ankle again near the end of the UNC game.

Go Pack!