|Off Reb Rate
|Off Reb Rate
St. Bonaventure lost leading scorer Andrew Nicholson to graduation after last season, but so far, it hasn't looked much worse for wear. This is thanks in large part to a couple returning wing players who have stepped up their involvement in the offense and maintained or increased their efficiency, which ain't often an easy thing to do. It took head coach Mark Schmidt a while to do it, but he appears to have established a consistent winner in the A-10.
The Bonnies present an interesting matchup in that they don't have a lot of size--just two guys 6-8 or taller figure to play--but they have like 43 wings who are around 6-5.
They are above average offensively in most respects, as was the case a year ago. And that turnover rate is nothing to be alarmed about if you're the Bonnies. They're shooting threes a bit more often this year what with guard-types everywhere, and they're also making them at a higher percentage than last year.
Charlon Kloof (6-3, 195) -- This guy owns a monocle and goes by Baron von Kloof. At least that's what I'd like to think. Monocle or no monocle, Kloof is a secondary option who is a decent three-point shooter. Judging by his free throw rates the last two years, he's not bad off the dribble.
Matthew Wright (6-4, 200) -- Took more threes that twos during his first two seasons with the Bonnies, which maybe was not the best idea considering he's a career 29.9% shooter from downtown. This season he's shooting 58.3% from two and 86.4% from the free throw line, but he's just 4-26 from three and turning the ball over a lot.
Chris Johnson (6-5, 205) -- In Nicholson's absence, Johnson has assumed the role of high usage go-to guy, and so far it's working out spectacularly--he's making 52.1% of his twos and 46.7% of his threes. His free throw rate is good and he isn't turning the ball over much.
Demitrius Conger (6-6, 205) -- Conger is St. Bonaventure's lone returning double-figure scorer, and he can score in a variety of ways. He's good at drawing contact, and he makes 80% of his free throws. He hasn't made fewer than 50% of his twos since 2010, and his outside touch ain't bad either. He's also a good rebounder at both ends for his size. Unfortunately, NC State only has one Lorenzo Brown, so it will be interesting to see how they combat Johnson and Conger, who are both scoring about 14 points per game. Rodney Purvis may be extra important in this game.
Marquise Simmons (6-8, 230) -- Efficient interior scorer, and this year he has been able to cut down on turnovers. He's a good rebounder at both ends, but the offensive end particularly.
Youssou Ndoye (7-0, 235), Eric Mosley (5-10, 170), Michael Davenport (6-5, 210), Jordan Gathers (6-3, 200). Mosley is not what one would call shy--that's why he's third in scoring and seventh in minutes. He will be givin' it the good ol' heave-ho at every opportunity, mostly from three. St. Bonaventure might need more than the 18 minutes per game Ndoye has been getting this season; he's an excellent shot blocker and defensive rebounder, though turnovers are a huge problem and he isn't a major factor at the offensive end.
Davenport was once a primary option for the Bonnies, but he missed most of last year with a shoulder injury and seems to have lost his place in the starting rotation. The team's two best scorers are his size, so that's understandable. Davenport is a pretty average shooter.
|Off Reb Rate
|Off Reb Rate
Here we see the sort of trouble that an undersized team can have defensively. The Bonnies haven't rebounded this poorly at the defensive end since 2008, and they haven't put opponents on the line this much since 2005. They are compensating with a considerably higher turnover rate, but here it's worth noting that while Pomeroy does adjust some numbers for schedule strength, the four factors are not among them. So some of the improvement may simply be due to the quality of competition to date.
I'm gonna guess they'll throw some zone at us--more than a third of St. Bonaventure's opponents' FGAs have been threes--and they have the perimeter size to cause problems. They will certainly want to make this a halfcourt game. But if NC State is patient, there should still be plenty of opportunities to score in the paint.
The Pomeroy Predictor likes NCSU by 10.