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2014 ACC Basketball Projections: How's Seven Wins Grab You?

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Science!

USA TODAY Sports

If Joe Lunardi can release 2014 NCAA tournament projections like three seconds after the 2013 tournament ends, then by golly, we can go ahead and take some stabs at what NC State's conference record will be next season. Dan Hanner has a solid projection system that incorporates a bunch of factors, tempo-free or otherwise. It ain't gospel--nothing like this should be taken as such--but it might at least provide us a baseline for expectations.

Hanner's system has NC State finishing 10th in the ACC with a 7-11 record. Duke and North Carolina are in their usual places atop the league, while the three newcomers are all expected to post winning records. Syracuse and Pittsburgh both could contend for the regular season title, and Virginia might be headed for a breakout season. (I think the Cavs are a pretty safe bet on that count.)

NC State probably has a higher upside than some of the teams listed ahead of them, but the downside risk is pretty high too. If everyone (but Vandenburg) comes back, this team will be in much better shape in 2014-15.

So many unknowns. It's exciting and terrifying at the same time. So what do you think? Seven wins sound about right given what we know about the roster right now?