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NC State vs. Wake Forest, part II: Wolfpack goes for season sweep

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

How to watch or listen to the game

Tip time: 8 p.m. ET

TVACC Network (Steve Martin, Cory Alexander)

Online streaming: ESPN3

Radio: Sirius/XM 193, Wolfpack Sports Network (affiliates)

Wake vitals

Record: 10-12 (2-7)
Pomeroy ranking: No. 111
RPI: No. 147
Wins vs. Pomeroy top-100: 2
Best win: Richmond (No. 45 in Pomeroy Ratings)
Worst loss: Delaware State (No. 223 in Pomeroy Ratings)

Adjusted tempo: 68.2 poss/40 minutes (ranks 46th)
Adjusted offensive efficiency: 103.4 (ranks 130th)
Adjusted defensive efficiency: 98.4 (ranks 109th)

Wake Forest @ StatSheet
Wake roster
Wake schedule
Wake 2014 stats / 2015 stats

Wake Forest in league play

Wake Forest Offense in ACC games eFG% (ACC Rank) TO% OR% FT Rate
2014-15 47.5 (10) 16.9 (11) 31.7 (10) 42.5 (1)

NC State and Wake Forest already have played once this season, though I'd forgive you if you forgot since it was almost two months ago. At that point, the Deacs were off to a slow start offensively, in large part because Codi Miller-McIntyre was off to a slow start, and he's the guy leading the offense.

In the time since, both CMM and Devin Thomas have played better, helping improve Wake's offensive production, though not to a decisive degree--they were looking at a rough season then, and that's proven to be the case. In league games, the Deacs rank in the bottom third in shooting, TO%, and offensive rebounding, and while they are getting to the line more often than anybody else, they are dead last in free throw percentage.

Miller-McIntyre and Thomas both have been more efficient in ACC games; CMM is hitting 52% of his twos (though he is only 4-16 from deep), while Thomas is hitting 53%. A big difference for Thomas has been his ability to cut down on turnovers in ACC games--his season-long TO% is an ugly 21.0, but in league games it's just 13.8. Both players also draw more than six fouls per 40 minutes.

That last bit would be more impressive if they didn't leave so many points at the stripe ... Miller-McIntyre is hitting 60.6% of his freebies, while Thomas is at 59.1%. In nine games, they have combined for 132 free throw attempts! That's about 15 per game. A couple more points at the line every night and maybe the Deacs have another win or two.

Aside from those two, Konstantinos Mitoglou, otherwise known as the Greek Deac, has been the major offensive presence, accounting for about 24% of the shots while on the floor. His willingness to fire away nearly led Wake to an win at Syracuse--he scored 26 points on 10-13 shooting--but he hasn't come close to replicating that effort.

He's a jumper-heavy guy, with 42 three-point attempts against only 24 twos. He's shooting just 31% from outside, but hey, that's a bit better than the team's average.

Wake's tendency to settle for three-pointers is what's dragging down their effective field goal percentage; there are a lot of dudes willing to shoot threes, but none are hitting even a third of their tries. That's particularly disappointing in Mitchell Wilbekin's case, since he's at nearly 40% on the year, in spite of colder shooting since the calendar turned.

The need more consistent help beyond CMM and Thomas, and when they do get that, they can be pretty tough, especially at home.

Wake Forest Defense in ACC games eFG% (ACC Rank) TO% OR% FT Rate
2014-15 51.8 (13) 15.3 (11) 28.6 (4) 41.3 (15)

So the Deacs' offense is the best in the league at drawing fouls, and the Deacs' defense is the league's most foul-prone. The average Wake Forest conference game takes three hours and forty-five minutes.***

(***That's not true. I hope.)

The Pomeroy Predictor has NC State by one.