How to watch or listen to the game
Tip time: 8 p.m. ET, Tuesday Feb. 24
TV: ACC Network (Tim Brant, Dan Bonner)
Online streaming: ESPN3
Radio: Wolfpack Sports Network (affiliates)
Record: 19-8 (9-5)
Pomeroy ranking: No. 15
RPI: No. 13
Wins vs. Pomeroy top-100: 10
Best win: Ohio State (No. 17 in Pomeroy Ratings)
Worst loss: Pittsburgh (No. 74 in Pomeroy Ratings)
Adjusted tempo: 70.2 poss/40 minutes (ranks 16th)
Adjusted offensive efficiency: 117.0 (ranks 11th)
Adjusted defensive efficiency: 96.2 (ranks 64th)
The UNC offense in ACC games
UNC Offense -- ACC games only
|eFG% (ACC Rank)||TO%||OR%||FT Rate|
|2014-15||52.4 (3)||16.6 (8)||38.6 (1)||33.7 (8)|
Lately, Roy Williams' UNC teams haven't been particularly interested in shooting three-pointers, and since league play started, the Heels have taken that to the extreme. Only 19% of their shots have been from outside, which comes to an average of 11.6 three-point attempts per ACC game.
Marcus Paige has accounted for 82 of the team's 162 three-point attempts; no other UNC player has taken more than 27. This is one of the most three-averse teams in D-I. Their selectivity has helped them shoot better from outside, as they've hit 36.4% in ACC games, compared to 33.1% for the season as a whole.
Also, Paige is shooting 50% from outside against State in his career, because the world is a cold, dark, horrible place.
Your biannual reminder: Marcus Paige is really good against NC State .. pic.twitter.com/BgN465mbTB— Joe Giglio (@jwgiglio) February 23, 2015
And really, that's all the perimeter scoring they need against the Pack.
Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson both have given Carolina excellent interior production in league games, and Johnson is leading the team in scoring. His 60.9% shooting on twos helps a bit there.
Meeks and Johnson can create a lot of additional scoring opportunities on the offensive glass, so again, and seemingly as always when it comes to this matchup, that aspect of the game will be important for NC State. Theoretically, UNC is capable of a substandard offensive performance against State, and rebounding should be a big factor in that.
But State did a decent job on the glass in the first meeting and UNC was lights out anyway, so I dunno, man, I just don't know anything anymore and now I'm crying again.
Again, though, speaking entirely theoretically, UNC should be capable of a somewhat below average offensive performance against NC State. I wouldn't know what that looks like, but my understanding is it is a thing that could theoretically occur, perhaps even in this particular universe. Theoretically.
The UNC defense in ACC games
|UNC Defense -- ACC games only
||eFG% (ACC Rank)||TO%||OR%||FT Rate|
|2014-15||49.8 (10)||15.3 (13)
||28.2 (3)||35.2 (8)|
The Heels are allowing an average of 1.05 points per possession to ACC foes, which puts them 10th. That's a sizable red flag for a team with big March aspirations--they've been only average on the interior despite all the height they can put on the floor, and they haven't really been able to hang their hat on anything other than defensive rebounding.
Well, that and good ol' free throw defense. Their clearly exceptional mental powers have limited ACC opponents to 64.4% free throw shooting. Perhaps Roy's wardrobe decisions have a part in this.
The Pomeroy Predictor likes UNC by 10.