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NC State vs. Pittsburgh, round 2: Wolfpack's ACC tournament begins with the Panthers

Amber Searls-USA TODAY Sports

How to watch or listen to the game

Tip time: 7 p.m. ET, Wednesday, March 11


Online streamingWatchESPN

Radio: Sirius/XM 83, Wolfpack Sports Network (affiliates)

Pittsburgh vitals

Record: 19-13 (8-10)
Pomeroy ranking: No. 78
RPI: No. 68
Wins vs. Pomeroy top-100: 6
Best win: North Carolina (No. 15 in Pomeroy Ratings)
Worst loss: Virginia Tech (No. 196 in Pomeroy Ratings)

Adjusted tempo: 60.9 poss/40 minutes (ranks 329th)
Adjusted offensive efficiency: 112.5 (ranks 25th)
Adjusted defensive efficiency: 104.2 (ranks 209th)

Pittsburgh @ StatSheet
Pittsburgh roster
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Pittsburgh 2015 stats

The Pittsburgh offense in ACC games

Pittsburgh Offense -- ACC games only

eFG% (ACC Rank) TO% OR% FT Rate
2014-15 48.1 (11) 14.7 (2) 33.3 (5) 33.8 (8)

Pittsburgh's offense has relied more on the margins for success than the whole shooting thing; that can work, it's just a frightening approach to efficient scoring. Pitt's success depends on creating more shots than its opponent, since the Panthers can't count on their shooting percentage to carry them through most games.

The good news for them is that NC State doesn't force turnovers, which plays right to one of their strengths. But on the other hand there is randomness, you know, the "whoops-I-thought-you-were-cutting-the-other-way" sort of randomness. Sometimes it's one kind of day, sometimes it's another. Or so I once heard.

In the lone meeting between these teams this season, Pitt took great care of the ball and grabbed about 31% of their missed shots. That wasn't nearly enough to overcome Pitt's 37.3% shooting, which ended up being the worst shooting performance of the regular season for the Panthers.

The Pittsburgh defense in ACC games

Pittsburgh Defense -- ACC games only
eFG% (ACC Rank) TO% OR% FT Rate
2014-15 52.7 (14) 17.2 (7)
33.3 (12) 41.3 (14)

The Panthers had multiple players receive all-defensive team votes despite the fact that Pitt finished 14th in defensive efficiency. This is by a wide margin the worst defensive club that Jamie Dixon has had in the last decade--not only bad but also unlucky.

Pittsburgh's ACC opponents hit 40.4% of their three-point tries; that's the (partially) unlucky bit. But Pitt's ACC opponents were also effective inside the arc, and Pitt's disruption factors--its block and steal rates--are low.

Pitt doesn't have much size to speak of, nor does it have a rim protector to count on. If this end of the floor doesn't spell death for the Panthers on Wednesday, there's a pretty good chance it will on Thursday.

The Pomeroy Predictor likes NC State by six.