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Bracketology 2015: Updated projections following NC State's loss to Duke

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Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

NC State's loss t o Duke hurt its seeding prospects a bit, but that may not be so bad--unless of course that means it just solidified the Wolfpack into the 8/9 game in Kentucky's bracket. The Pack moved up to No. 40 in the RPI despite losing, and its average seed across all projections right now is a nine, per Bracket Matrix.

While the Pack is firmly in the field of 68, there are still a lot of things outside of its control that can affect how that field is sorted on Sunday. More than a dozen potential bid thieves--teams that wouldn't get in without winning their conference tournament--are alive.

It's full-on sweatin' time for the end of the at-large board. I definitely don't miss that part of living on the NCAA tournament edge.

As for the mainstream bracket projections: Joe Lunardi has a ninth-seeded NC State playing Ohio State in Villanova's region, and Jerry Palm has State as a 10-seed playing St. John's. In a Kentucky/Wisconsin region of death. Patrick Stevens also has State as a 10 opposite second-seeded Wisconsin. There's about a 43% chance NC State ends up a nine-seed, according to Team Rankings.