NC State is in the Sweet Sixteen. Did you hear about NC State making the Sweet Sixteen? Well, we did, we're in it. All up in the Sweet Sixteen. What were the odds of that? I have no idea. But there are odds on the Wolfpack's tournament chances the rest of the way, and it can't hurt to know just what State will be defying.
The Pack's national title odds are at 50/1, per Bovada, and its odds of winning the East Region are at 6/1. Michigan State has emerged as the favorite in the East, at least in the eyes of Bovada's handicappers. And a whole lot of pundits, who have wasted zero time jumping on the Michigan State bandwagon while shouting about how great Tom Izzo is in March. (Fun Tom Izzo/March fun fact: when Izzo wins a game in this month, it counts as three wins! He's just that good. Except when he isn't.)
The stat-crunchers at numberFire give NCSU even longer odds, pegging the chance of a Final Four berth at 9%. The email they sent me also said the Pack has a zero percent chance of winning the title. We'll show you!
Team Rankings, meanwhile, gives State a 47% shot at getting by Louisville, a 15.9% chance of reaching the Final Four, and a 4% chance of making it to the national title game. State has a 38% chance of beating Louisville, according to the Pomeroy Ratings.
As you can see, the odds as established by a variety of smart people are stacked against NC State heading into this weekend. But as any coach will tell you, odds were made to be broken. That's just what we'll have to do. Smash these odds into a million much smaller odds. (These smaller odds will later be repurposed as Cleveland Browns Super Bowl odds, but that's not important right now.)
So what do you think the chances are that NC State makes it to the Final Four? Is it 99.9% or 100%?