Boston College. Oh dear god in heaven, Boston College. Where to begin, where to finish, how to avoid an overwhelming sense of sadness. This BC team is actually not the worst ACC team of the last 15 years, at least not by some very slim margins in the Pomeroy Ratings, but you can put it in the discussion with 2012 Boston College (4-12 ACC; No. 264 KenPom) and 2011 Wake Forest (1-15 ACC; No .271 KenPom). The '16 edition of BC ranks 260th.
Over the last half decade, the ACC has entered an era of solid depth through the middle and a terrifying abyss at the bottom. In the '00s, we just didn't see teams this overall terrible--nobody in the league even challenged the 200-mark in the Pomeroy Ratings. From 2002-2010, no team finished below 140th. Since then, seven teams have finished below 140th.
The firebombings at Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, and BC are the reasons for that shift. And while there may be some signs of hope at VT and possibly GT, Boston College remains in a deep state of depression.
|BC Offense -- Four Factors||eFG%||TO%||OR%||FT Rate|
|2015-16 Overall (National Rank)||47.4 (277)||20.3 (299)||21.6 (343)||25.3 (351)
|2015-16 ACC Only (Conf. Rank)||45.3 (15)||22.7 (15)||21.2 (15)||19.7 (15)|
We have seen/endured some bad offenses from the firebombed squad in the last five years, but none have been worse than this Boston College offense. I think it's safe to say this is easily the worst ACC offense of this century. In league games, the Eagles are dead last in each factor, dead last in two-point accuracy, and 13th in three-point accuracy.
They are 12th or worse in every statistical category worth a mention. There is nothing they do well.
The roster is a mess, one-part gutted by defections (see: Olivier Hanlan, Ryan Anderson, among others), one-part youth, and one-part (almost literally) non-existent recruiting.
The situation Jim Christian inherited should be subjected on no man. He was forced to plug holes with graduate transfers who obviously pay no long-term dividends, because Steve Donahue didn't bother to actually secure a commitment from any high school players during his last year. The result was a bizarre mix of upperclassmen--some holdovers from Donahue, the others Christian's last-second transfer-market grabs
He had to find somebody to fill roster spots his first year, or he might not have been able to put the required five players on the court. If you count defections, I think the recruiting class he inherited from Steve Donahue was like -3 players.
Christian brought in a huge freshman class this season, but there's little to do when the roster is so astoundingly mangled. With that influx of youth, Christian has understandably expanded his rotation. The results have been predictable, but however he chose to approach this season, the results weren't going to vary much, and about all you can do in this situation is throw your young guys into the fire.
To sum up a roster so badly disfigured: the meaningful minutes this year have gone to two seniors (one of which is a graduate transfer), one junior, and seven freshmen. In what Ken Pomeroy calls "minutes/roster continuity," BC ranks 339th. It's going to take a long time for this to get sorted out.
This year the Eagles are led by former Florida guard Eli Carter, who has pretty much given up on any pretense of making anything of the season from a team standpoint. He leads the league in usage rate in ACC games, but he's got a dreadful 43.5 eFG% to go with it. The production doesn't justify the usage, not even on a team like this.
The Eagles have also been slowed by injuries to a couple of potentially solid pieces down the road: freshmen Jerome Robinson and A.J. Turner both have missed multiple games. Robinson is unlikely to play against NC State.
This is all bad. Look away.
|BC Defense -- Four Factors||eFG%||TO%||OR%||FT Rate|
|2015-16 Overall (National Rank)||51.5 (253)||19.4 (96)||28.5 (114)||37.2 (181)
|2015-16 ACC Only (Conf. Rank)||55.6 (15)||19.8 (2)||30.2 (4)||39.4 (13)|
Well, hey, at least there are a couple of positives that BC can highlight at this end.
The Pomeroy Predictor likes State by 15.