Did NC State’s win at North Carolina help its NCAA tournament odds considerably? You darn tootin’ it did. Is NC State still on an uphill climb to make the tournament? For sure. To put this climb in stark relief, we have the spoilsports at TeamRankings.com. (I kid.)
This is by no means an end-all evaluation of State’s tournament odds since a team is always evolving, but it’s a reasonable indicator: after beating UNC, Team Rankings pegs NC State’s current odds of an at-large bid at 18.1%. This figure is generated based on season simulations, which find NC State most likely to finish the regular season with 18 or 19 wins.
Team Rankings has another handy tool, which is bid probability by win total. If NC State finishes with 22 wins (including ACC tourney games), for example, its at-large odds are estimated at 89.2%. At 21 wins, it’s 53.7%, and at 20 it dips all the way down to 12%. That puts the minimum goal for State at six more wins, which sounds about right to me, especially since there aren’t any more opportunities in the regular season for headlining wins.