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NC State’s final non-conference game of the season is against Wright State, which is 3-7 on the year and sits at No. 195 in the Pomeroy Ratings. The way this season has gone, I’ve got at least some degree of worry about any opponent ranked in like the top 300. So I’m a bit worried about what the Raiders can do tomorrow night.
Wright State had the best team in the Horizon League last year and finished tied for first in the regular season before promptly losing its first game in the conference tournament. The Raiders haven’t been as good this season—more than 100 spots worse in the Pomeroy Ratings—but returned several key vets from last season and figure to start turning it around at some point. At some point that’s not tomorrow! Whew, nice save, me.
Wright State 2021-22
| ... | Adj OE/DE (rk) | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ... | Adj OE/DE (rk) | eFG% | TO% | OR% | FTR |
| Offense | 101.0 (172) | 48.3 (226) | 19.4 (192) | 21.9 (328) | 33.3 (103) |
| Defense | 103.0 (234) | 53.8 (306) | 18.2 (222) | 30.5 (249) | 28.0 (146) |
The Raiders have no bench, basically, and they are carried by three guys: forward Grant Basile, who averages 19.2 points per game; wing Tanner Holden, who averages 17.5 PPG; and guard Trey Calvin, who is adding 12.7 per night.
Basile has been an excellent shooter inside the arc (57%) and very good at getting to the free throw line, where he’s shooting better than 81%. He can be a bit turnover prone, though, and after shooting 20-42 from downtown last year, he’s just 6-39 to start this one.
Holden is an infrequent three-point shooter (5-10 on the season), preferring to do his work off the bounce, and he’s been really good. Another guy who has been able to draw a lot of contact and score a lot of points at the free throw line, and a 53% shooter inside the arc.
Calvin is a decent jump shooter but a more limited scorer; it’s Basile and Holden who figure to be the two guys creating problems for NC State all night.
On the defensive side, Wright State has played like a team that can’t afford to get anybody in foul trouble—the Raiders haven’t been disruptive in general and rank 278th in steal rate. Their interior defense has been brutal, with opponents shooting 55.5% on twos while also grabbing a good number of offensive boards. NC State should be able to find an edge on the boards at this end—which may well be necessary to win, who knows.
KenPom likes the Pack by 11. The game is set for 7 p.m. ET on Tuesday, with the only televised coverage via ACC Network Extra.