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New ACC projections give NC State a good shot at winning two more conference games

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Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Over at Football Study Hall, Bill Connelly has projections for how the ACC will sort itself out over the final few weeks of the regular season. Per Bill's computin' machine, NC State has an 93.6% chance of winning at least one more conference game. State's odds of winning two more league games is about 50-50.

NC State's odds of finishing 3-0 are actually higher than its odds of finishing 0-3, so we have nothing to worry about from here on. I'm kidding. Right now NC State Shit is in its 7yoffice perusing these figures and going like:

Back in July I looked at how Power 5 teams bounce back after winless seasons in conference play and found that on average, those teams picked up at least one conference win the following season and about two wins overall. NC State met both of those averages with the win at Syracuse.

I also found that roughly 22% of teams coming off an 0-fer season in league play finished .500 or better overall the following season. The odds of NC State joining that bunch, based on Bill's numbers, are really good.

Interestingly, Bill also has calculated win probabilities for each game the rest of the way. NC State has only about a 15% chance against Georgia Tech--that's bleak, man, sheesh--per his metrics, but the Pack's win probability against Wake is 82.4%. And State is given a 58.3% chance at UNC, which feels well off to me, but let's all pretend it's on the money since we'll feel better that way.

ESPN's projections based on its FPI metric give State a 37.1% chance against GT, an 85.7% chance against Wake, and a 38.1% chance against UNC.