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As much as we insist optimism run high during this month--particularly since State does not play during it--there is sometimes occasion to acknowledge cold, mean numbers. ESPN's FPI projection system provides just such a thing, as it's saying there is a nearly 54% chance that either Clemson or FSU wins the league.
Our @ESPNStatsInfo now projects the ACC as a toss-up between Clemson (27.1 percent chance to win) and FSU (26.8) http://t.co/PA0yQOWyon
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) August 13, 2015
Chances for rest of ACC to win league: VT 14.2; UNC 9.4; GT 8.2; UM 4.5; UL 3.5; Pitt 3.4; NCSU 2.4; UVa 0.2; Duke 0.2; Cuse 0.1; BC 0; WF 0
— Andrea Adelson (@aadelsonESPN) August 13, 2015
The Tigers and Seminoles not only have out-recruited everyone in the league recently, they've generally out-performed everyone else on the field as well. Of course they're the top tier ... but whew does that leave a bleak picture for everybody else. Virginia Tech gets the third-highest odds as a theoretical Coastal favorite, but 14.2% is also about the odds Michael Brewer isn't a shitshow again.
NC State's odds to win the league are 2.4%, or about one out of every 50 tries. You know what that leaves?
I should note here there is a separation between the league odds and overall success--two-and-a-half percent odds on the league doesn't equate to "this team is bad." FPI projects NC State to be the 44th-best team in the country and win eight games. NC State finished last season 55th in the F/+ ratings, which I think are a bit more accurate but contain similar nuts and bolts.