Kelvin Harmon was the favorite target of Ryan Finley in 2017—Jaylen Samuels led the team in receptions, but it was Harmon who led the Wolfpack receiving corps in targets. Harmon made 69 receptions last season on 117 targets for 1,017 yards.
His catch 59-percent catch rate (69/117) was modest within the context of NC State receivers—Samuels, Jakobi Meyers, and Steph Louis each caught at least 66% of the balls thrown their way. But Harmon was also more frequently targeted and trusted by Finley on deep throws, which no doubt hurt his catch rate.
Samuels was second on the team behind Harmon with 98 targets, and now that JaySam is gone, the distribution is going to change. It’s a similar concept to replacing the possessions vacated by a top scorer in basketball—they gotta go somewhere. NC State ain’t about to be adopting the triple-option this year, and if anything it will lean more on Finley than it has in the past.
Give Harmon a 15% increase in targets while leaving his catch rate and his average yards per catch the same and you get 79 receptions for 1,167 yards. Would you take the over on either of those numbers?