clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NC State approaches most difficult offensive rebuild in the last 20 years

New, 79 comments

The 2019 team will return the least amount of offensive production of any team since the turn of the century

NCAA Football: South Carolina at North Carolina State Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

The 2019 season will be a pivotal point in the Dave Doeren era of NC State Wolfpack football for a number of reasons. Doeren has taken a historically volatile program, raised recruiting, steadily increased win totals, and put in place a foundation that could provide a new baseline for the program - and potentially propel it to heights not seen in the program in decades.

There are, however, some concerning areas that will need to be addressed for the program to continue its upward climb. Not the least of these concerns will be the offense. The team will be breaking in new starters at quarterback, running back, two receiver spots, left tackle, left guard, and center. Couple all that with a change at the Offensive Coordinator level, and there are plenty of question marks surrounding the 2019 NC State offense.

So with all the turnover, how does this rank against what previous Wolfpack teams have faced?

2019 will be the only season since the start of the 2000 season in which NC State returns less than 40% of their total from-scrimmage production from the previous season - that’s total touches from scrimmage, yards from scrimmage, and touchdowns. The Wolfpack return just 37% of their combined carries and receptions from a year ago, 37% of their total yards from scrimmage, and just 31% of their total TDs.

NC State Yearly Returning Production from Scrimmage

Year Players Rush Att Rush Yds Rush TD Receptions Rec Yds Rec TD Scrimmage Plays Scrimmage Yds Scrimmage TD
Year Players Rush Att Rush Yds Rush TD Receptions Rec Yds Rec TD Scrimmage Plays Scrimmage Yds Scrimmage TD
1999 > 2000 67% 46% 53% 36% 64% 66% 71% 52% 62% 54%
2000 > 2001 67% 93% 86% 100% 50% 44% 39% 75% 55% 59%
2001 > 2002 50% 29% 18% 21% 61% 67% 61% 42% 51% 44%
2002 > 2003 68% 97% 99% 100% 73% 75% 50% 89% 84% 81%
2003 > 2004 65% 54% 66% 55% 68% 65% 63% 61% 65% 60%
2004 > 2005 85% 57% 43% 60% 77% 78% 75% 64% 63% 67%
2005 > 2006 63% 92% 104% 100% 43% 35% 29% 78% 62% 63%
2006 > 2007 92% 100% 100% 100% 86% 89% 100% 95% 93% 100%
2007 > 2008 63% 99% 100% 100% 53% 50% 50% 78% 64% 73%
2008 > 2009 61% 57% 57% 50% 73% 78% 70% 62% 70% 62%
2009 > 2010 72% 38% 28% 47% 75% 79% 84% 52% 63% 72%
2010 > 2011 57% 67% 74% 47% 55% 46% 57% 62% 54% 53%
2011 > 2012 61% 87% 83% 90% 49% 46% 41% 72% 58% 52%
2012 > 2013 44% 62% 82% 67% 64% 64% 68% 63% 69% 67%
2013 > 2014 52% 56% 62% 64% 61% 58% 57% 58% 60% 61%
2014 > 2015 70% 87% 86% 88% 62% 60% 75% 79% 73% 82%
2015 > 2016 71% 68% 79% 75% 87% 88% 75% 74% 83% 75%
2016 > 2017 78% 46% 40% 52% 74% 78% 80% 56% 64% 65%
2017 > 2018 53% 40% 30% 29% 66% 76% 71% 50% 58% 42%
2018 > 2019 57% 34% 32% 11% 42% 40% 52% 37% 37% 31%

For the seventh time since the start of the 2000 season, and the fourth time during the Dave Doeren era, NC State returns 5% or less of their total QB production from the prior year.

NC State Yearly Returning QB Production

Year QBs Completions Attempts Yards TDs INTs
Year QBs Completions Attempts Yards TDs INTs
1999 > 2000 25% 1% 0% 1% 0% 0%
2000 > 2001 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2001 > 2002 67% 98% 96% 96% 94% 100%
2002 > 2003 75% 99% 98% 99% 100% 100%
2003 > 2004 67% 3% 2% 2% 3% 0%
2004 > 2005 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2005 > 2006 50% 41% 46% 44% 57% 43%
2006 > 2007 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2007 > 2008 67% 99% 99% 99% 100% 96%
2008 > 2009 25% 76% 70% 73% 85% 7%
2009 > 2010 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2010 > 2011 33% 3% 2% 2% 0% 0%
2011 > 2012 50% 97% 97% 98% 97% 100%
2012 > 2013 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
2013 > 2014 33% 4% 4% 5% 7% 0%
2014 > 2015 50% 99% 98% 99% 100% 83%
2015 > 2016 75% 4% 4% 3% 0% 0%
2016 > 2017 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
2017 > 2018 25% 99% 99% 98% 100% 100%
2018 > 2019 50% 2% 2% 4% 0% 0%

The previous six seasons where State has had to break in a new QB under center, the transition was at least aided by returning position players who had been key pieces of the offense the prior year. Philip Rivers took over a team in 2000 that returned 62% of scrimmage yards from the year before, Jay Davis inherited 65% of scrimmage production in 2004, Mike Glennon in 2011 had 54% of scrimmage yards returning, Pete Thomas/Brandon Mitchell had 69% in 2013, Jacoby Brissett 60% in 2014, and Ryan Finley walked into the easiest situation of the bunch with 83% of scrimmage yards returning in 2016. Whoever ends up being the starter this year for the Wolfpack will be working with position players that accounted for just 37% of the scrimmage yards in 2018.

From a percentage standpoint, 2019 will be the second biggest rebuild for the receiving corps over the last 20 years, as the 2006 team returned only 35% of their receiving yards from the previous year versus the 2019 team returning 40%. However, that quickly changes when you see that the top two receivers from the 2005 team (Brian Clark, T.J. Williams) didn’t have as many yards receiving combined (944 yards) as 2018’s second-leading receiver (Jakobi Meyers; 1,047 yards) on his own.

The rushing attack in 2019 has, on paper, the fourth biggest rebuild over the last two decades of Wolfpack football with just 32% of rushing yards from 2018 returning. The 2002 (18% of rushing yards returning), 2010 (28%), and 2018 (30%) teams faced worse numbers, although 2019 returns by far the fewest percentage of returning rushing TDs (11%), plus the team has to replace three key members of the offensive line. However, only the 2018 team returned a running back with more rushing yards the previous year (Reggie Gallaspy, 506 yards in 2017) than Ricky Person (471 yards). The leading returning running backs in 2002 (Cotra Jackson, 105 yards) and 2010 (Brandon Barnes, 79 yards) had far less production to their credit the previous year.

Thanks to the increase in recruiting during the Doeren era, there’s more talent in the program now than there has been before - that will undoubtedly aid in the transition. But this team will still have to overcome a lack of returning production this fall as it looks to continue the overall upward climb of the program.