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NC State opens as a 6.5-point road favorite over West Virginia

NCAA Football: West Virginia at Missouri Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

As I mentioned at the tail end of last week, SP+ was ballparking NC State at around 6.5 points better than West Virginia, even accounting for the Mountaineers’ home-field advantage ... and, as it happens, Vegas agrees.

NC State opened at -6.5 against West Virginia and in some places that line has moved to NCSU -7.

This is looking like more of a Year Zero situation for the Mountaineers than I would have guessed—looks like Dana Holgorsen hit the ejector button for Houston with good reason. West Virginia’s offense is so far averaging 13.5 points per game, and the ‘Eers are coming off a 38-7 drubbing at Missouri.

Replacing a standout quarterback is difficult, example 4,325: WVU averaged 7.1 yards per play in 2018 and is averaging 3.7 through two games in 2019. The Mountaineers beat James Madison, 20-13, in the first week, but managed less than 300 yards of offense in the process. They also have a grand total of 64 rushing yards this season.