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The ACC in FPI, Week 11: NC State remains in the middle after beating FSU

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NCAA Football: North Carolina State at Virginia Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Turns out SP+ is behind ESPN’s paywall from now on, so I’ll be switching to FPI for my purposes here. There’s not much change in the ACC pecking order, since both systems are generally in agreement with each other. FPI does show some differences in the middle of the league and also hates the bottom of the ACC much more than SP+

Clemson and Notre Dame remain 1-2 this week, as has been the case all year.

ACC Standings By FPI

Team Wk 11 FPI (Rank)
Team Wk 11 FPI (Rank)
Clemson 26.0 (4)
Notre Dame 20.3 (7)
Virginia Tech 11.2 (21)
UNC 11.0 (24)
Miami 10.2 (27)
Wake Forest 7.3 (31)
Louisville 4.8 (46)
BC 3.7 (53)
Pitt 3.2 (58)
Virginia 3.1 (59)
NC State 2.4 (62)
Duke -1.3 (77)
FSU -5.1 (90)
Georgia Tech -5.3 (92)
Syracuse -7.8 (94)

FPI likes what Wake Forest has done quite a bit, and the Deacs have been the best/most fortunate team this season in one respect: turnovers. They have one. Literally they have turned the ball over one time this season. That was a lost fumble against NC State, so they’re on a five-game streak without a turnover. Considering that they’ve been even or better in turnover margin in every game, it seems like they should be better than 4-3, though losses to Clemson and UNC are understandable.

After Louisville—the best damn 2-6 team in the country!—FPI sees little difference between BC/Pitt/NC State/UVA which feels about right given what we’ve seen this year.

The Wolfpack still has games left against the two worst teams in FPI’s estimation, and State hasn’t lost a game this year in which it was favored.