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This may shock you, but the computers didn’t love NC State’s performance against Liberty over the weekend. (For that matter, my eyes didn’t love it, either.) So NC State fell four spots in FPI after beating the Flames the way it did, which is fine since it ain’t like that alters how much I enjoyed the win.
The ACC picture after last weekend:
The ACC According To FPI
| Team | Wk 12 FPI (Rank) | Rank Change |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Wk 12 FPI (Rank) | Rank Change |
| Clemson | 26. (3) | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 20.7 (6) | 1 |
| UNC | 11.2 (22) | 2 |
| Miami | 10.3 (24) | 3 |
| Virginia Tech | 8.7 (28) | -7 |
| Wake Forest | 7.1 (33) | -2 |
| Pitt | 6.0 (38) | 20 |
| Louisville | 5.5 (43) | 3 |
| BC | 3.7 (53) | -- |
| Virginia | 3.4 (56) | 3 |
| NC State | 1.9 (66) | -4 |
| Duke | -1.5 (78) | -1 |
| FSU | -4.8 (88) | 2 |
| Georgia Tech | -5.4 (91) | 1 |
| Syracuse | -8.2 (97) | -3 |
Virginia Tech has lost three straight games after allowing Pittsburgh to pile up 47 points Saturday, and the loss put the Hokies under .500. I suspect if NC State played Tech now, the margin would be a little different, but so it goes. NC State was also fortunate to get Wake Forest early before that team came together. Them’s the breaks.
Louisville can be explained largely by turnover margin: the Cardinals are 2-3 over their last five games despite outgaining all five opponents on a per-play basis (that includes Notre Dame), but they were even or worse in turnover margin in each game. Louisville is -12 on the year.
And as for NC State’s matchup with Syracuse, FPI gives State a 72% chance of winning.