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NC State vs Miami in 1-2-3

What I’m thinking about with this game

NC State v Miami Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images

One Thing I’m Worried About

  1. NC State’s ability to move the ball consistently. The Wolfpack used the big play to take down Clemson last Saturday, but overall State struggled to move the ball on a play-by-play basis, finishing with a Success Rate of just 17% for the game. Against a Miami team that ranks 22nd in Opponent Success Rate (36%), the Wolfpack may again have to rely again on the explosive play, and that’s not been a strength of the Pack this year.

Two Things I’m Confident In

  1. Riding the high of last week’s win. I know there’s an argument as to whether or not momentum is real, but I believe it is - and I’m sure the team does, too. Carter-Finley Stadium can be one of the most electric atmospheres in the country; even more so under the lights. Coming off a big win over Clemson, the team will be feeling good, the fans will be behind them, and that will give the Wolfpack a huge boost on Saturday.
  2. M.J. Morris is starting to put it together. As mentioned earlier this week, the win against Clemson was a huge developmental step forward for Morris. He’s put up bigger numbers, but he’s not been more impressive than he was last week, especially late with the game on the line. If that’s the Morris that shows up from here on out, NC State can beat anybody on the schedule.

Three Stats You Should Know

  1. Miami ranks 15th in Offensive Predictive Points Added (PPA) - that’s the ability to score points on a given down and distance - with a value of 0.318. However, over the last four games, the Hurricanes have averaged 0.146, a mark that would rank just 93rd nationally.
  2. The Hurricanes are 1st nationally in Offensive Power Success Rate, converting plays needing 2 yards or less for a first down or touchdown at a 95.5% rate. Stopping opponents at this very thing is one of NC State’s strengths, as the Wolfpack defense rank 33rd nationally (63.6%) at Opponent Power Success Rate.
  3. Should he return for his senior year in 2024 (and stay healthy), Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke should easily finish his career as the Hurricanes all-time leader in passing yards. With five games (possibly more) left this year, he currently has 6,650 passing yards to his credit, sitting 3,318 yards behind Brad Kaaya’s program record.