NC State was incredibly fortunate to get out of Charlottesville with a win, much less to do so in regulation—were it not for Virginia handing the Wolfpack a lot of yardage in penalties in the last minute, this game ends up in overtime, and then, who knows.
Kevin Concepcion had an outstanding night, but the offense once again turned in a lackluster performance against an FBS team—and not a good one, mind. In three games against FBS opponents, State is averaging a rather unpleasant 4.73 yards per play. Last season, amid all the quarterback chaos, State averaged 4.67 YPP against FBS opponents.
UVA out-gained State by 65 yards and was better on a per-play basis as well, so if it weren’t time to sound the alarm bells before, it surely is now.
Looking at what remains on the schedule, it’s hard to see the Pack being favored in more than two games (Marshall, Virginia Tech), and the next five games look all the more daunting. Can NC State get through Clemson, Duke, Louisville, and Miami with a split? I’d take that for sure, but the odds on that don’t feel too good.