Backing The Pack - Music City Bowl: N. C. State vs. VanderbiltCheering for anyone else is for quitters.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/47119/backingthepack-fave.png2013-01-01T16:28:40-05:00http://www.backingthepack.com/rss/stream/35004272013-01-01T16:28:40-05:002013-01-01T16:28:40-05:00MCB By The Numbers: Heavy Sigh Edition
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/U0treiRDgQqLgSlKi3hU7X27XSs=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5906909/158836424.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Joe Robbins</figcaption>
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<table width="401" border="1" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1" height="114"><tbody>
<tr>
<td></td>
<td align="center"><b>Plays<br></b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Total Yds<br></b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Yds/Play<br></b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Yds/Carry*<br></b></td>
<td align="center"><b>Yds/PassAtt<br></b></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>NCSU<br>
</td>
<td align="center">78</td>
<td align="center">424<br>
</td>
<td align="center">5.4</td>
<td align="center">2.8<br>
</td>
<td align="center">7.2<br>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Vandy<br>
</td>
<td align="center">68</td>
<td align="center">225<br>
</td>
<td align="center">3.3<br>
</td>
<td align="center">3.1<br>
</td>
<td align="center">4.0<br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p>(*Yds/carry stats are calculated after removing sacks from the equation.)</p>
<p><a href="http://www.gopack.com/sports/m-footbl/stats/2012-2013/121231mc.html">Box Score</a></p>
<p>Omega <a href="http://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/31/3822944/music-city-bowl-vanderbilt-cruises-thanks-to-n-c-state-miscues">touched on this yesterday</a>, and indeed, NC State significantly out-gained Vanderbilt and still managed to lose by two touchdowns. The offense looked comfortable in spurts but simply could not get out of its own way, whether it was dropped passes, poor decisions made by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/39109/mike-glennon">Mike Glennon</a>, or a freshman running back putting the ball on the carpet.</p>
<p>So Vanderbilt's offense rarely had far to go. For the game, their average starting field position was the NC State 49. Their worst average starting field position in any one quarter was their own 41. NC State's defense did a nice job under the circumstances--it adjusted well after Vanderbilt's opening drive--and limited the Commodores to just three third-down conversions on 14 tries, but there's only so much that you can do when you're put in a bad position time and time again.</p>
<p>The offense wasn't simply disappointing because of the turnovers, it was also disappointing because Dana Bible stuck to the exact same boring crap we watched all season long. It was Bible's last go 'round at State, perhaps his only opportunity to be a head coach, and rather than opening things up and treating the bowl game for what it is, he stayed in the comfort zone that really hasn't done much for us this year. There were no trick plays or other shenanigans that might otherwise be described as "fun," and hell there wasn't even a damned handoff to the fullback. That's not exactly what you might consider going out in style. The craziest the team got was on a kick return where they threw a lateral to the other side of the field.</p>
<p>None of which was surprising to me; it's a good example of why I'm glad we're moving on. NC State football just stopped being fun, even when we were winning games.</p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/nc-state-football-ncaa/2013/1/1/3825408/nc-state-vanderbilt-box-score-music-city-bowlSteven Muma2012-12-31T16:46:55-05:002012-12-31T16:46:55-05:00MCB Bowl: Vandy Cruises
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<img alt="James Franklin can thank Mike Glennon and the turnover-prone Pack for that refreshing Gatorade bath." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/R4XpLjIhsxQS4R7jsEQp8F7JLv4=/0x0:4000x2667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5868075/158838528.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>James Franklin can thank Mike Glennon and the turnover-prone Pack for that refreshing Gatorade bath. | Joe Robbins</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Five Pack turnovers led to 17 points and gifted the game to the Commodores.</p> <p></p>
<p>N. C. State had nearly 200 more total yards than Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl but gifted the game to the Commodores thanks to five turnovers. Wolfpack quarterback <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/39109/mike-glennon">Mike Glennon</a> threw for 383 yards and surpassed 4,000 yards on the season but was picked three times. The ‘dores scored 17 points off turnovers, which was basically the difference in the 38-24 final that closed the Tom O'Brien and friends era at N. C. State with a disappointing 7-6 record.</p>
<p>Vanderbilt (9-4), which won nine games for the first time in almost a century, was led by senior running back <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79061/zac-stacy">Zac Stacy</a>, who rushed for 107 yards and a score on 25 carries. Stacy did much of his damage from the wildcat formation; Vandy went with the wildcat on six of seven snaps at one point, with Stacy and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79064/wesley-tate">Wesley Tate</a> scoring touchdowns from the formation during that stretch.</p>
<p>Despite the success of the wildcat, the Commodores only managed 117 yards rushing for the game and were held to under three yards a carry. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116241/jordan-rodgers">Jordan Rodgers</a>, who, as you may have heard, is the younger brother of Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers, was not much help to the offense. Little bro posted just 108 yards through the air and averaged 4.3 yards per attempt, though he did manage to toss two touchdowns and run for another. Vanderbilt totaled just 225 yards of total offense in a game that was, despite the scoreboard, dominated by a Pack defense that simply could not overcome the offense's slew of mistakes.</p>
<p>Remarkably, the Commodores scored a point for every six yards it gained on offense; the Wolfpack needed 17.7 yards for each of their points. Part of that discrepancy is accounted for by the penalty yardage. State was flagged nine times for 90 yards and had a pair of penalties that helped the ‘dores take a 7-0 lead in their opening drive. Vanderbilt was flagged just twice for 10 yards. Vandy, despite allowing a kickoff TD return, also averaged 10 yards more on kick returns and 16 more yards on punts than the woeful State special teams units.</p>
<p>Vanderbilt led 14-0 after Stacy's touchdown run with 10:08 left in the second quarter. Despite turnovers on three straight possessions, State climbed back in it on Tony Creecy's one-yard run with 6:18 to go before halftime. Tate's score pushed the advantage back to two touchdowns before Tobais Palmer took the ensuing kickoff back 94 yards to keep the Pack close. Palmer went over 1,000 yards in kick return yardage during the game, setting a somewhat dubious record in the process. It's the most kickoff return yardage in a season by a Pack player but was made possible because the opponent was kicking off far too frequently.</p>
<p>Eschewing the TOB take a knee strategy late in the first half, interim coach Dana Bible had Glennon come out gunning with just over a minute left on the clock. Perhaps TOB knew what he was doing, as Glennon tossed his second pick of the half, both on all-arm, back-foot throws that fell well short of their intended target, and Vanderbilt took advantage with a Rodgers to <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116267/jordan-matthews">Jordan Matthews</a> 18-yard bubble screen to go back up by 14. Glennon continued to gun it, and even though he had just 41 seconds to work with, he put the Pack in position for a field goal before the half but Niklas Sade's 44-yard attempt fell comically short and left of the uprights.</p>
<p>The Pack marched effortlessly down the field to open the third quarter, reaching the Vanderbilt 25 before Glennon inexplicably forced a jump ball into the endzone, which <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79058/trey-wilson">Trey Wilson</a> picked off and returned 65 yards. Stacy's wildcat rush of 14 yards on 4<sup>th</sup> and four moved the chains and led to a <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116254/carey-spear">Carey Spear</a> 30-yard field goal, pushing the lead to 31-14. At that point, the Commodores had put up 31 points despite gaining just 168 yards from scrimmage.</p>
<p>Despite the many offensive gaffs and penalties, the Pack were still in the game after Spear's field goal, but they needed nearly 10 minutes of game clock to answer with a Sade 24-yarder to get back within two scores. That meant the offense had to be perfect from then on; it wasn't, turning the ball over on downs near midfield on its first possession after Sade's strike.</p>
<p>Now the defense had to be perfect; it wasn't. A personal foul penalty on T. Y. McGill and a 4<sup>th</sup> and 14 completion for 14.5 yards to Matthews, who was given a huge cushion by <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/114554/david-amerson">David Amerson</a>, put the Commodores in business, and Rodgers put the game out of reach with a 15-yard scamper with 5:11 to play.</p>
<p>Glennon finally reached the endzone, hooking up with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/84388/rashard-smith">Rashard Smith</a> on a 19-yard score with 2:06 left in the game, but it was far too little too late for the fifth-year senior who threw for 383 yards but possibly hurt his draft stock with three interceptions that showed both a lack of fundamentals and decision-making ability. Glennon certainly has a cannon, but so did Ryan Leaf and Heath Shuler.</p>
<p>For the game, State totaled 424 yards to Vandy's 225, but the Pack "run" game managed just 41 yards on 25 carries for a 1.6 average. Those numbers are hurt by Camden Wentz's gloriously awful snap over his 6-foot-6 QB's head that lost 20 yards and killed a drive. State was an impressive 13-for-18 on third down against a Vandy D that had previously allowed just a 31.9% conversion rate. State's D gave up just three third down conversions all game, and even though they allowed Vandy to convert on three of four fourth down tries, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/39114/earl-wolff">Earl Wolff</a> and company really deserved a better fate.</p>
<p>Wolff, in his final game, led the defense with nine tackles. McGill had 1.5 tackles for a loss, including the Pack's lone sack. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116249/kenny-ladler">Kenny Ladler</a> led the Commodore turnover parade with a pick and a fumble recovery and also made a team-high 10 stops, though his unit was gashed for 100 yards more than it normally gave up in total yardage on the season. Of course getting five turnovers makes up for a lot of yardage, and getting turnovers was not a strength for Vanderbilt, which entered the game 113<sup>th</sup> in the FBS with 13 takeaways all season.</p>
<p>Another anomaly was the Commodores' red zone efficiency; they entered the game fifth worst in the FBS in touchdown percentage but scored on their first four trips to the red zone to build a lead the Wolfpack could not surmount.</p>
<p>Stay tuned to BTP in the coming days for more on the MCB and a retrospective of the TOB era (if you have strong antidepressant medication and/or a healthy supply of beer).</p>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/31/3822944/music-city-bowl-vanderbilt-cruises-thanks-to-n-c-state-miscuesOmega Wolf2012-12-28T23:41:55-05:002012-12-28T23:41:55-05:00MCB Prediction
<figure>
<img alt="Peace out, Mike. Thanks for the memories." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/PHMCcItogD855CsFPOFwxxAoKco=/520x72:3803x2261/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5719681/153594568.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Peace out, Mike. Thanks for the memories. | Streeter Lecka</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Omega Swami is going to tell you how this thing ends.</p> <p></p>
<p>Unlike <a target="_blank" href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uieL5Hte5h0">this cranky old blowhard</a>, your BTP self-styled Swami will not lead you astray or yell at you if you move around while I'm typing. (Although I might have thought, "Go to bed, bitch" as the wife kept looking over my shoulder and asking what I was doing as I was getting my amateur muckraking on earlier. I mean, Jesus. I'm trying to concentrate here. It's like no one here has even been in blogging before. Jesus. I can't believe what I just saw.)</p>
<p>Anyway, here are a couple of rambling scenarios about how the MCB could go down followed by how it will probably go down, I think.</p>
<p><b>Why Vanderbilt Might Win:</b></p>
<p>The Commodores are an 8-4 team from the SEC, and they enter the MCB riding a six-game winning streak. They face a disappointing 7-5 team from the much weaker ACC, and that team will be led by a zombie coaching staff after Tom O'Brien and all but one assistant coach were dismissed following the Wolfpack's failure to meet expectations in year six of the TOB regime. On top of all of that, Vanderbilt is in effect the home team, as Nashville's LP Field (home of the NFL's Titans) is minutes from its picturesque campus. Four of the Wolfpack's five losses came away from Cater-Finley Stadium.</p>
<p>Statistically, Vanderbilt boasts one of the nation's top defenses. The Commodores rank 15<sup>th</sup> in the FBS in scoring defense and 17<sup>th</sup> in total defense. Though they miraculously won all three games, the Wolfpack struggled mightily to put points on the board against the three toughest defenses they faced: Florida State (2<sup>nd</sup> in total defense), UConn (9<sup>th</sup>), and Maryland (19<sup>th</sup>). Vanderbilt's duo of thousand-yard performers, receiver <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116267/jordan-matthews">Jordan Matthews</a> and running back <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79061/zac-stacy">Zac Stacy</a>, along with a potent special teams unit, should provide enough scoring to push past a Pack team that will struggle to stimulate scoreboard activity.</p>
<p><b>Why N. C. State Might Win:</b></p>
<p>SEC or not, this is Vanderbilt we're talking about. The Commodores 8-4 mark gave them just their second winning season since 1982, which was also the last time they won as many as eight games. You have to go back to 1915 to find a nine-win Vandy squad, and the program has never won more than nine games, so this is not exactly Alabama. The 2012 incarnation of the MCB will be just the sixth bowl trip all time for the ‘dores, who, like their MCB opponent, had exactly one win over a bowl-bound program this year, a one-pointer over Ole Miss. State's lone win over a bowl team was also by one point and came against Florida State.</p>
<p>The difference between these programs comes down to expectations. The Florida State win was supposed to be one of many highlights for the Wolfpack as they competed for an ACC championship. Winning just seven games got the coaching staff fired. Win seven or more games at Vanderbilt and you're a god, but just because Vanderbilt exceeded expectations and N. C. State failed to meet them does not make the Commodores a more talented team. The Wolfpack have the most talented player on the field in <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/39109/mike-glennon">Mike Glennon</a>, who has thrown for nearly 7,000 yards and 61 touchdowns over the past two seasons and may be the first quarterback selected in the NFL draft. The senior gunslinger has the arm to expose a Vandy D that fabricated its awesomeness against the likes of Presbyterian, UMass, Kentucky, and Wake Forest. Glennon and his teammates realize that their failure to get the job done this season put a lot of people on the unemployment line, and they should be highly motivated to win just one for the zombie gippers.</p>
<p><b>What Will Actually Happen:</b></p>
<p>Perhaps Interim Head Zombie Dana Bible has devised some sort of trick (setting the hotel clocks back a couple of hours?) to get the Wolfpack awake and ready to play for a noon kickoff. The Wolfpack were at their worst in nooners this season, going 1-3 in early games. And the earlier in the early game it was, the uglier it got. State was outscored 62-21 in the first quarter of noon and 12:30 kickoffs. To make matters worse, the MCB will actually kick at 11 a.m. local time. With help from its stellar special teams play and a couple of three-and-outs from a rusty, pass-oriented offense, the Commodores will take an early two-score advantage. One part pride and one part guilt trip over getting their coaches axed will fuel a furious Wolfpack comeback, but Vandy hangs on, 30-24.</p>
<p>Adding Vanderbilt to the list of teams State should have beaten (Miami, UNC, and Virginia for sure; Tennessee and Clemson were winnable too, dammit) would be a fitting final nail in the TOB era's coffin.</p>
<p>The spread has Vandy as a 7.5-point fave and the over/under is 51.5, so take the Pack to cover and take the over. (No, don't. Don't bet at all. Omega Swami's predictions are for entertainment purposes only, and, seriously, just don't bet on Wolfpack football. Ever.)</p>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/28/3813768/music-city-bowl-prediction-time-ncstate-wolfpack-vanderbilt-commodoresOmega Wolf2012-12-22T23:39:11-05:002012-12-22T23:39:11-05:00Defense Wins Music City Bowls
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<img alt="This is not the position you want your safety to be in...again." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/EzoLXfu3O5J3fD33aHCs_My6d7Y=/56x20:3831x2537/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5465863/20120930_ter_su8_685.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>This is not the position you want your safety to be in...again. | Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p></p>
<p>Defensively, a perusal of statistical leaders from N. C. State and Vanderbilt reveals a lot of similarities. For example:</p>
<ul class="unIndentedList">
<li> The Commodores have a corner named <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79058/trey-wilson">Trey Wilson</a> who does not pick many passes, but when he does he always takes it to the house, much like C. J. Wilson in his Pack career (until this year anyway).</li>
<li> Vanderbilt and N. C. State both excel at knocking offenses off schedule, ranking among the FBS leaders in tackles for loss. The Commodores drop opponents for a loss on over 11% of their snaps and rank 5<sup>th</sup> in the FBS with 7.75 tackles for a loss.</li>
<li> The Pack stop opponents for a loss on 10% of their snaps and rank 12<sup>th</sup> nationally with 7.33 tfl per game.</li>
<li> The Pack are 19<sup>th</sup> with 2.67 sacks per game; Vandy is 37<sup>th</sup> with 2.33 per game.</li>
<li> Both teams rely on a lot of guys to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. The Pack have 21 players credited with at least .5 a tackle for a loss; the Commodores have 23. Vandy has 14 players that have registered a sack; State has 13.</li>
<li> Both teams' starting safety tandem rank 1-2 on the team in tackles (actually, in Vandy's case the safeties tied for the team lead in total tackles, while State's tied in solo stops).</li>
<li> Both teams get off the field: State is third in opponent third-down conversion rate (27.17%); Vandy is 16<sup>th</sup> nationally (31.91%).</li>
<li> Vandy turned safety <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116255/karl-butler">Karl Butler</a> (6-1, 215) into a smallish outside linebacker, much like State has done in recent years with <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134183/rodman-noel">Rodman Noel</a> and D. J. Green.</li>
<li> State ranks 38<sup>th</sup> in the Football Outsiders' defensive efficiency metric; Vandy is 42<sup>nd</sup>.</li>
</ul>
<p>For all the similarities, there are some notable differences, most of which seem to favor the Commodores. For one, Vandy ranked 15<sup>th</sup> in scoring defense (18.3 points per game), which is kind of the most important bottom line defensive stat. The Pack ranked 45<sup>th</sup>, allowing about a touchdown more per contest (24.6 ppg), which is a big deal. Vanderbilt's performance is somewhat inflated by games against the likes of Presbyterian and UMass, among other highly deficient offenses, as noted in more detail <a href="http://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/6/3735758/n-c-state-vs-vanderbilt-how-dandy-is-that-vandy-d/in/3500427">further down the stream</a>.</p>
<p>Possibly the biggest advantage for the Commodores, though one that could once again be misleading due to their schedule, is that they allowed over a yard less per snap defensively than did the Pack (4.69/5.72). Vandy was 15<sup>th</sup> in the FBS in opponent yards per play; the Pack were a somewhat embarrassing 75<sup>th</sup>. However, the Commodores played just four FBS teams with a winning record, and those teams banged out 5.87 yards per play (and the ‘dores lost all four games). Alas, the Pack only faced four winning FBS programs as well, and they spilled out 6.92 yards per snap in those games, so no solace there.</p>
<p>While both teams like to play a disruptive, aggressive style of defense, Vanderbilt does so with more discipline. The Commodores managed to apply pressure without giving up the big play; they ranked 36<sup>th</sup> in the country in surrendering plays of 20+ yards (45). The Pack seem to pay when pressure does not lead to negative plays, or they too often have communication breakdowns or inexplicably quit on plays. It all adds up, as in adds up to 64 plays of 20+ yards surrendered on the season, the 100<sup>th</sup> worst total in the FBS. The bigger the play, the worse it gets. State surrendered 20 plays of 40+ yards, 115<sup>th</sup> worst in the FBS.</p>
<p>Individually, you will find more red-clad defenders among the national leaders, though that is not necessarily a good thing. For example, <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/39114/earl-wolff">Earl Wolff</a> and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/85862/brandan-bishop">Brandan Bishop</a> are tied for 26<sup>th</sup> in the FBS in solo stops with 67, and Wolff is 43<sup>rd</sup> with 110 total tackles. While Wolff often roams into the box and makes plays at or near the line of scrimmage, it is still a little concerning that the tandem charged with being the last line of defense has had to make so many stops. Definitively positive individual leader stats for the Pack include <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/85880/darryl-cato-bishop">Darryl Cato-Bishop's</a> 6.5 sacks (which ranks 54<sup>th</sup>), <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/85865/rickey-dowdy">Rickey Dowdy's</a> 13.5 tfl, which ranks among the top 50 nationally, and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/114554/david-amerson">David Amerson's</a> five picks. Amerson ranks ninth nationally in INTs a year after leading the college ranks.</p>
<p>The most acclaimed individual on Vanderbilt's defense is tackle <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38456/rob-lohr">Rob Lohr</a>, a Lombardi and Nagurski watch list nominee. Lohr, a senior who has made 37 consecutive starts, has posted 11 tfl thus far in 2012. Lohr gives the ‘dores a definite advantage over the Pack in interior line play, where State's sophomore tandem suffered from inconsistency. Corner <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116246/andre-hal">Andre Hal</a> likes to get his hands on balls and led Vandy with 11 pass breakups. As his anagram (Hand Earl) would seem to indicate, he would have more picks if his hands weren't prone to spitting up. Middle linebacker <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116252/chase-garnham">Chase Garnham</a> (Each Nag Harms) led the squad in quarterback nags with six.</p>
<p>The chart below displays individual leaders in a number of key defensive stats. For offensive and special team leaders, look <a href="http://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/9/3746188/n-c-state-vs-vanderbilt-onwards-math-jet/in/3500427">here</a> and <a href="http://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/11/3756564/ncstate-vanderbilt-special-teams/in/3500427">here</a>.</p>
<p> </p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p><b>N. C. State</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p><b>Stat</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p><b>Vanderbilt</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>Earl Wolff (110)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Tackles</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>K. Ladler, J. Marshall (80)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>Rickey Dowdy (13.5)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Tackles for loss</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>C. Garnham, K. Butler (11.5)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>D. Cato-Bishop (6.5)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Sacks</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>Chase Garnham (6)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/114578/art-norman">Art Norman</a> (7)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>QB hurries</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p><a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/79080/walker-may">Walker May</a> (6)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>David Amerson (5)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>INT</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>A. Hal, T. Wilson (2)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>David Amerson (11)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Pass break ups</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>Andre Hal (11)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>Brandan Bishop (2)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Forced fumbles</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>10 tied with 1</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="139">
<p>Rickey Dowdy (2)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Fumble recoveries</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="186">
<p>5 tied with 1</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/22/3796938/defense-wins-music-city-bowls-vanderbilt-ncstate-wolfpackOmega Wolf2012-12-11T18:27:54-05:002012-12-11T18:27:54-05:00Isn't That Special
<figure>
<img alt="Jonathan Krause is rather dangerous with the ball in his hands. I'm sure we'll kick it to him anyway." src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mk802TM6RLDo6bfk5AmLO_G49rM=/0x0:1000x667/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4820339/125446058.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jonathan Krause is rather dangerous with the ball in his hands. I'm sure we'll kick it to him anyway. | Grant Halverson</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Seriously, put that stick down.</p> <p></p>
<p>N. C. State senior <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/114555/tobias-palmer">Tobias Palmer</a> racked up 954 kickoff return yards for the season, fourth most at the FBS level, which tells us two things: 1) Palmer is a dangerous return man, and 2) Wolfpack opponents were kicking the ball off far, far too often. Palmer averaged a solid 25.2 yards per return and took one kick back 100 yards to the house that Chuck Amato built. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/134193/niklas-sade">Niklas Sade</a> ranked fifth nationally in average kickoff distance and 11<sup>th</sup> in touchback percentage at a touch over 60%, making the kick return and kickoff units strengths for the Wolfpack, but overall Vanderbilt has a decided advantage in special teams.</p>
<p>In fact, the Football Outsiders rank State's offensive (70<sup>th </sup>to 86<sup>th</sup>) and defensive efficiency (38<sup>th</sup> to 42<sup>nd</sup>) ahead of Vanderbilt, but the Commodores enjoy a higher overall ranking (52<sup>nd</sup> to 56<sup>th</sup>) thanks to a special teams unit that ranks 6<sup>th </sup>nationally in efficiency. The Pack come in at 65<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p>Commodore <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116244/jonathan-krause">Jonathan Krause</a> is one of just eight FBS returners to take multiple punts back for scores, and his 11.2-yard return average ranks 24<sup>th</sup> nationally. Punter <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38455/richard-kent">Richard Kent's</a> boot will soon have its own line of kung fu movies. Kent ranks 12<sup>th</sup> nationally with a 44.8-yard average and has deftly put 19 kicks inside the 20 with only three touchbacks. Kent has 16 boots of 50+ yards, which is basically two Wil Baumann punts put together.</p>
<p>Commodore placekicker Casey Spear nailed 19 of 22 field goal attempts, good for the 10<sup>th</sup> best accuracy in the FBS, and he was an impressive seven-for-10 from beyond 40 yards. Coach Franklin apparently has a soft spot for redshirt senior <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/38458/ryan-fowler">Ryan Fowler</a>, who shared extra point duties with Spear. Spear was perfect in his 24 attempts but Fowler missed a couple.</p>
<p>Missing kicks has been something Pack fans have come to expect in recent seasons after having been spoiled for many years with accurate and sometimes even NFL-level placekickers (Cofer, Hauschka). Sade, while excellent on kickoffs, managed to connect on just over half of his field goal attempts and had two blocked. He also botched a pair of PATs. Baumann, who also had a kick blocked this season, is 90<sup>th</sup> in punting distance at the FBS level, which contributes to putting the Pack in a hole in a battle of field position.</p>
<p>If Vanderbilt has a special teams' weakness, it is in the kickoff and return game. <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158294/brian-kimbrow">Brian Kimbrow</a> was 89<sup>th</sup> in return average and managed a long of only 43 yards. Spear only managed a touchback on a little over a third of his kickoffs, though that may have been a strategic decision to try to pin opponents inside the 25. While Palmer's 140.6 all-purpose yards per game is impressive (he ranks fourth nationally), hopefully he will not get too many opportunities to return kicks on December 31<sup>st</sup>.</p>
<p>See the chart below for special teams' statistical leaders for both Music City Bowl combatants:</p>
<p> </p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>N. C. State</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>Special Teams Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>Vanderbilt</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b> </b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b> </b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b> </b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>Punt Return Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Smith (33)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Punt returns</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Krause (25)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Smith (311)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Punt return yards</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Krause (281)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Smith (9.4)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Punt return average</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Krause (11.2)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Smith (73)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Long punt return</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Krause (83)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Smith (1)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Punt return TD</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Krause (2)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>Kick Return Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Palmer (38)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kick returns</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kimbrow (20)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Palmer (957)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kick return yards</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kimbrow (413)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Palmer (25.2)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kick return average</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kimbrow (20.6)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Palmer (100)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Long kick return</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kimbrow (43)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Palmer (1)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kick return TD</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>N/A</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>Punting Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (39.3)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Average</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kent (44.8)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (4)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>50+</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kent (16)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (60)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Long</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kent (67)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (5)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Touchbacks</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kent (3)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (36)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Fair catches</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kent (16)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (16)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Inisde 20</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kent (19)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Baumann (1)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Blocked</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>N/A</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p><b>Kicking Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (12)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>FG Made</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (19)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (21)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>FG Attempts</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (22)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (57.1)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>FG%</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (86.4%)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (4/8)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>40+</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (5/7)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (1/3)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>50+</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (2/3)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (50)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>FG long</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (52)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (2)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>FG blocked</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (1)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (41/43)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>PAT</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (24/24)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (63.9)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Kickoff average</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (61.1)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sade (40)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Touchbacks</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Spear (22)</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/11/3756564/ncstate-vanderbilt-special-teamsOmega Wolf2012-12-09T07:14:54-05:002012-12-09T07:14:54-05:00Onwards Math Jet
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tSDtHMAECxgcgQL8csT2_fO7eNc=/0x43:4000x2710/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4670885/20120908_jel_ad4_580.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Mike DiNovo-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Jordan Mathews is one of the nation's most productive receivers, but Vanderbilt lives and dies by the ground game.</p> <p>It would be an understatement to say that former National Honors Society member Onwards Math Jet, better known to the public by his non-anagram moniker <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116267/jordan-matthews">Jordan Matthews</a>, is the favorite target of Vanderbilt quarterback <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116241/jordan-rodgers">Jordan Rodgers</a>. Math Jet, a junior, ranks seventh in the FBS with 1,262 receiving yards, which accounts for 47% of the Commodores' total passing yardage for the season. Senior Zac Stacy lends the ground muscle to the Commodore attack; Stacy rushed for 1,087 yards to make Vanderbilt one of just 14 FBS programs to boast both a thousand-yard receiver and rusher, and promising freshman <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/158294/brian-kimbrow">Brian Kimbrow</a> ably spells Stacy. Kimbrow added 432 yards on a team best 6.4 yards per carry.</p>
<p>Interestingly, Math Jet gains about 20 more yards per game in Vandy losses compared to its wins, while Stacy gains almost 30 more yards in wins compared to losses. Stacy also averages a touchdown per game in wins but has just one in four Commodore setbacks. These statistics suggest that Vanderbilt is a run-first offense that relies on Rodgers to manage the game rather than win it. And team stats further bear that out: the Commodores employed a 60-40 run-pass ratio for the season. Certainly Vanderbilt can beat you on the ground or through the air, but if Rodgers is forced to look for Math Jet a little more than usual, that is probably advantage N. C. State.</p>
<p>Stopping the run is certainly a key barometer for success for the Wolfpack. They yielded 3.5 yards per carry and six touchdowns in wins but were gashed for five yards per carry and 11 touchdowns in losses. The Commodore run split is even more extreme. They averaged five yards a pop and scored 21 touchdowns on the ground in wins but managed just 2.58 yards and one score in losses. Unfortunately, the season trend against the run does not bode well for the Pack's chances of bottling up Stacy and making Vanderbilt one dimensional. State gave up 3.38 yards per carry in August/September, 4.21 in October, and 5.01 in November.</p>
<p>N. C. State threw the ball on 53.6% of its offensive plays and had nearly 160 more offensive snaps than the Commodores. These numbers are telling: the Wolfpack lacked a consistent ground game, often played from behind, and preferred a quicker pace than their Music City Bowl opponent even if that pace was often dictated by necessity. State was 12<sup>th</sup> in the FBS in total offensive snaps; Vandy ranked 96<sup>th</sup>. These numbers make Math Jet's season stand out all the more; despite the Commodores' slow pace and preference for matriculating the ball down the field via the running game, Math Jet caught 39 more passes than <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/85879/quintin-payton">Quintin Payton</a>, State's leading receiver.</p>
<p>The Pack zombie coaching staff might want to game plan a bit for #87, but ultimately what the Pack can (or can't) do with Stacy and Kimbrow will have the greater impact on the game's outcome.</p>
<p>See the chart below for each team's statistical leaders on offense (*one carry/reception per team game to qualify):</p>
<p> </p>
<table align="left" border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p><b>N. C. State</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p><b>Statistical Leaders</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p><b>Vanderbilt</b></p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121"></td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p><b>Passing Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Glennon (511)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Attempts</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Rodgers (294)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Glennon (295)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Completions</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Rodgers (175)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Glennon (57.7%)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Completion %</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Rodgers (59.5%)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Glennon (3,648)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Yards</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Rodgers (2,431)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Glennon (30/14)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>TD/INT</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Rodgers (13/5)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Glennon (131.6)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>QB rating</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Rodgers (140.2)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121"></td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p><b>Rushing Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Thornton (142)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Attempts</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Stacy (182)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Thornton (655)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Yards</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Stacy (1,087)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Thornton (4.6)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Yards per carry*</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Kimbrow (6.4)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Creecy (4)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>TD</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Stacy (9)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121"></td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p><b>Receiving Stats</b></p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126"></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Payton (48)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Receptions</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Matthews (87)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Payton (761)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Yards</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Matthews (1,262)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Smith (16.6)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>Yards per catch*</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Boyd (16.4)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="121">
<p>Underwood (10)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="132">
<p>TD</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="126">
<p>Matthews (7)</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/9/3746188/n-c-state-vs-vanderbilt-onwards-math-jetOmega Wolf2012-12-06T11:14:59-05:002012-12-06T11:14:59-05:00How Dandy is that Vandy D?
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SIMcwtRe3UdrBwY__xQt_3sTmEg=/0x194:466x505/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4523507/125446183.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Grant Halverson</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The Wolfpack have a lot to overcome to win the Music City Bowl, but the Commodore D might not be as formidable as it appears at first glance.</p> <p>At first glance, it appears N. C. State is heading for a whoopin' when it takes on Vanderbilt in the Music City Bowl on December 31<sup>st</sup> in Nashville. The Wolfpack registered a meager 7-5 mark in the moribund ACC, they are playing an 8-4 SEC team on a six-game winning streak, that SEC squad is in effect the home team for the game, the Wolfpack are being guided by a lame duck coaching staff, and the Commodore defense appears to be among the best in the nation (15<sup>th</sup> in scoring defense, 10<sup>th</sup> in passing defense, 17<sup>th</sup> in total defense). Add to those sad facts the fact that N. C. State last beat an SEC team in 1999, and you have a recipe for an early afternoon hangover for this noon kickoff (in which case you will want to just keep right on drinking until 2013).</p>
<p>In addition to free form haiku submissions in the comments and the occasional anagram (<a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116241/jordan-rodgers">Jordan Rodgers</a> = jar dongs do err), one thing you can always count on here at BTP is for your intrepid staff to look beyond the nagging reality of history and the potentially misleading story of raw stats to find a shred of hope. Here it is: the Football Outsiders' Fremeau Efficiency Index likes N. C. State's defense <i>better</i> than Vanderbilt's unit. State ranks 38<sup>th</sup>; Vandy comes in at 42<sup>nd</sup>.</p>
<p>How is this so? As I noted in <a href="http://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/3/3724196/n-c-state-vs-vanderbilt-strength-vs-strength-in-the-music-city-bowl">the first look at the game</a>, the Commodores have played some truly horrendous offenses. Using the <a target="_blank" href="http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fei">Fremeau Efficiency Index</a> for offense as our guide, we see that Vandy played five top 50 offenses but just as many offenses that ranked 101<sup>st</sup> or worse among the 124 FBS programs. The ‘dores were 1-4 against top 50 offenses, surrendering an average of 27.4 points per game in those contests, and the lone win against a so-called "good" offense was over a Tennessee team that had pretty much quit on its coach/season/raison d'etre by week 12. Against the five teams ranked 101<sup>st</sup> or below, the ‘dores yielded a mere 11.2 points per game and went 5-0. For comparison sake, the Pack played four offenses ranked outside the top 100 and held them to an average of under 10 points per game. It ain't that hard to do.</p>
<p>A blowout, shutout win over Presbyterian (let's see you try that mess against Methodist) further fuels Vandy's impressive raw rankings in scoring, passing, and total defense. And the scoring defense is also bolstered by a good bit of luck. Over the last decade or so, the average yards a team needs to gain to score one point (ypp) is 15.44, but Vandy opponents needed 17.9 yards for each point this year. In other words, Vandy's opponents have left about 35 points off the scoreboard over the course of the season. The Commodores should have allowed about 21.2 points per game, which would still rank just inside the top 25 but is not nearly as intimidating as the 18.3 figure they posted for the season.</p>
<p>Not surprisingly given the above ypp numbers, Vandy was the fifth stingiest team in the nation in surrendering touchdowns in the red zone this season, but is that a skill, a product of playing a lot of really bad offenses, or merely luck? By no means is N. C. State's one-dimensional offense overly formidable (it ranks 70<sup>th</sup> in the Fremeau index), but I think the Pack will surpass 20 points in the game despite the many obstacles it faces (lame ducks on the road, etc.). If so, the game comes down to which N. C. State defense shows up. If the unit that allowed just 11.1 points in State's wins shows up, the last day of 2012 will be an enjoyable one for the Pack faithful. But if the group that gave up 43.4 points in State's losses takes the field, 2012 may seem like the year that refuses to end.</p>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/6/3735758/n-c-state-vs-vanderbilt-how-dandy-is-that-vandy-dOmega Wolf2012-12-03T18:03:05-05:002012-12-03T18:03:05-05:00N. C. State vs. Vanderbilt: Strength vs. Strength
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/QA_b2nD9BEZ6NzI4dA1FiD8YCuI=/0x795:3135x2885/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/4363027/20120930_ter_su8_682.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Steve Mitchell-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Mike Glennon and the Wolfpack's pass happy offense will face a stiff challenge against the Commodore defense.</p> <p></p>
<p>Way back in August during our series of previews for the much-anticipated, ultimately-deflating, signs-of-sad-to-come season-opener against Tennessee, the normally prescient Omega Swami concluded that the game would pit the irresistible force of <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/116203/tyler-bray">Tyler Bray's</a> right arm against the immovable object that was supposed to be N. C. State's secondary. Due in part to inexperienced line and linebacker units that were unable to generate any pressure on Bray, the Wolfpack secondary was exposed in the Vols' 35-21 win. The Pack secondary was anything but immovable as Bray threw for 333 yards and two scores, and Bray looked very much overrated in just about every game after that. So much for the hype.</p>
<p>Two troubling themes developed in the season opener: 1) utter total and complete sucking in the first quarter and 2) allowing long scoring plays after the secondary miscommunicated, gambled and lost, played with total indifference, or some combination of all three (and by secondary I mean <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/114554/david-amerson">David Amerson</a>). The Vols rolled up 22 first-quarter points (one of three games in which State allowed 20+ first-quarter tallies (all losses)) and scored on plays of 41, 67, and 72 yards.</p>
<p>Why rehash the UT debacle? As it turns out, Vanderbilt, which will in effect host N. C. State for the Music City Bowl in Nashville on December 31<sup>st</sup>, is the squad with the immovable secondary. The Commodores flustered Tennessee's bad boy into an 11-for-29 afternoon. Bray was picked twice and managed a paltry 3.55 yards per attempt. The Commodores allowed just 175.8 yards per game through the air on the season, good for 10<sup>th</sup> best in the country; that's a stat that makes them one of the worst possible matchups for a State team that is a one-trick pony offensively. State senior quarterback <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/39109/mike-glennon">Mike Glennon</a> strong-armed the Pack passing attack to 301.6 yards per game, good for 20<sup>th</sup> in the FBS; however, the anemic Pack rushing <s>attack</s> discombobulated thing managed just 116.92 yards per contest, "good" for 109<sup>th</sup> out of 124 teams.</p>
<p>Interestingly, despite picking UT QBs three times in their blowout over their in-state rivals, the Commodores shut down opposing passing games without forcing very many turnovers. They managed just eight total interceptions on the season. Vandy is only moderately successful in sacking opposing quarterbacks, ranking 38<sup>th</sup> with 2.33 QB throwdowns a game, so what makes their passing defense so effective? Their success could have a lot to do with their competition. Vanderbilt played against Georgia and <a class="sbn-auto-link" href="http://www.sbnation.com/ncaa-football/players/78599/aaron-murray">Aaron Murray</a>, and the second highest ranked passer in college football (172.37) torched the ‘Dores for 250 yards and the Dogs quit throwing the ball with a kajillion point lead or Murray would have had a lot more. Though Tennessee had a solid passing attack at times this season, Bray and the Vols were in full quit-on-the-orange-panted-coach mode by the time they played Vandy, and seven of the ‘Dores' 12 opponents ranked in the bottom half of the FBS in passing efficiency. Check out this list of FBS powers and their QB efficiency rankings: Missouri (107<sup>th</sup>), Wake Forest (110<sup>th</sup>), Kentucky (115<sup>th</sup>), and UMass (dead freakin' last).</p>
<p>As the chart below indicates, N. C. State is a team with some glaring deficiencies, but it can throw the football. If Vanderbilt is a genuine top 10 pass defense, this game could get very, very ugly, especially since the Wolfpack are being led into battle by a lame duck coaching staff. But, if Vandy's raw pass defense totals are misleading, Glennon might just send the staff and seniors out with one more gunslingin' win.</p>
<p> </p>
<table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>N. C. State</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Statistic (NCAA Rank)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Vanderbilt</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>28.4 (72<sup>nd</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Scoring Offense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>29.3 (60<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>24.6 (45<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Scoring Defense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>18.3 (15<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>116.92 (109<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Rushing Offense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>170.42 (55<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>157.92 (60<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Rushing Defense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>150.58 (52<sup>nd</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>301.6 (20<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Passing Offense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>222.2 (70<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>261.8 (97<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Passing Defense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>175.8 (10<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>420.9 (51<sup>st</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Total Offense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>392.6 (70<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>419.7 (80<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Total Defense</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>326.4 (17<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>-.33 per game (81<sup>st</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Turnover Margin</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>-.42 per game (87<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>2.67 per game (21<sup>st</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sacks by</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>2.33 per game (38<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>3.00 per game (110<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>Sacks allowed</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>1.92 per game (60<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>55 (58<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>20+ yard plays</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>55 (58<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>64 (101<sup>st</sup>)</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>20+ yard plays allowed</p>
</td>
<td valign="top" width="213">
<p>45 (36<sup>th</sup>)</p>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
<p></p>
https://www.backingthepack.com/2012/12/3/3724196/n-c-state-vs-vanderbilt-strength-vs-strength-in-the-music-city-bowlOmega Wolf